Games › Crafting › Crafting + Outbreak Sim
Should I ship a Crafting Outbreak Sim?
Crafting + Outbreak Sim
Only 18 developers shipped a Crafting Outbreak Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Survival Log, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $890k, ×1422 the market median. Revenue is up 100% on the market; 33 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.4k (exactly $2,398) |
| Top 25% | $53k (exactly $52,610) |
| Top 5% | $893k (exactly $893,157) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 18 |
| Released games | 37 |
| Announced | 33 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Crafting
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Outbreak Sim
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Crafting, Outbreak Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, FPS, Looter Shooter
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 4,645 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Job SimulatorStrong odds
- + SportsFair
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + IdlerFair
- + SolitaireFair
- + LovecraftianPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + LGBTQ+Poor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + WesternPoor odds
- + Bullet HeavenPoor odds
- + TrainsPoor odds
Comparable games
ZED ZONE 2023 · EA · $1.3M 
Survival Log 2026 · $893k 
Project L33T: Founders Edition 2026 · $315k 
Mad Tower Tycoon 2020 · $186k 
Afterinfection 2025 · $125k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | ZED ZONE | · EA older | $11.99 | 3,506 81% | 105k | $1.3M (exactly $1,261,108) | Leven Liu |
| | Survival Log | $10.99 | 2,709 82% | 81k | $893k (exactly $893,157) | Midnight Workshop | |
| | Project L33T: Founders Edition | $19.99 | 525 47% | 16k | $315k (exactly $314,842) | Targetpoint Interactive, Holmgard Games | |
| | Mad Tower Tycoon | older | $14.99 | 413 77% | 12k | $186k (exactly $185,726) | Eggcode |
| | Afterinfection | $8.99 | 463 56% | 14k | $125k (exactly $124,871) | RePatrick21 | |
 | Execute | $5.99 | 679 91% | 20k | $122k (exactly $122,016) | Payne Robinson | |
 | Pestis | older | $24.99 | 88 77% | 2.6k | $66k (exactly $65,974) | DIEDEMOR STUDIO GAMES |
 | ZOMBUTCHER: Monster Business Simulator | $12.99 | 135 69% | 4.1k | $53k (exactly $52,610) | ODIUS | |
 | Post-Apo Builder | $9.99 | 54 37% | 1.6k | $16k (exactly $16,184) | Septarian Games | |
 | Dead 4 Now: Bio-Weapon Simulator | $14.99 | 29 75% | 870 | $13k (exactly $13,041) | d'Evo | |
 | Wild Alone | $10.99 | 38 47% | 1.1k | $13k (exactly $12,529) | Wild Alone 21 | |
 | Apocalypse Factory | · EA | $9.99 | 8 50% | 240 | $2.4k (exactly $2,398) | Mind Leak |
 | Apocalypse Cult Leader | $14.99 | 5 40% | 150 | $2.2k (exactly $2,248) | Noxurtica |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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