Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Naval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Naval Crafting game?

Crafting + Naval

Only 13 developers shipped a Naval Crafting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Quinfall, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $21k, ×33 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×5762 the market median. Revenue is up 445% on the market; 24 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 32.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 445% on the market, 24 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Naval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $99k → $17k → $156k → $8.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Naval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $5.3k (exactly $5,273)
Median $21k (exactly $20,509)
Top 25% $156k (exactly $156,496)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 36
Announced 24
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 445% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Naval
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Crafting
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 60% positive over 18,144 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.3k, median $21k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.3k. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
From the Depths older $24.99 11,059 89% 332k $8.3M (exactly $8,290,932) Brilliant Skies Ltd.
Skull and Bones older $29.99 4,650 65% 140k $4.2M (exactly $4,183,605) Ubisoft Singapore
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Age of Water $29.99 2,883 72% 86k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) Three Whales Studio
NavalArt · EA older $19.99 2,362 90% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,491) Rigidbody
Salt 2: Shores of Gold $19.99 2,182 85% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) Lavaboots Studios
Ship Graveyard Simulator older $14.99 2,107 64% 63k $948k (exactly $947,518) Games Incubator
Salt older $14.99 1,959 75% 59k $881k (exactly $880,962) Lavaboots Studios
Sea of Craft older $14.99 385 70% 12k $173k (exactly $173,134) Wizard Games
SHIPS AT WAR · EA older $14.99 369 76% 11k $166k (exactly $165,939) Golddorf Spieleentwicklung
Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey $14.99 348 79% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) World of Poly
ShipShaper: Falconeer Chronicles · EA $8.99 192 96% 5.8k $52k (exactly $51,782) Tomas Sala
ShipCrafter · EA $7.99 209 90% 6.3k $50k (exactly $50,097) Myrmecoman
FULL METAL COFFIN $4.99 137 94% 4.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) Titanite, Mantle Array, Xenith
Dreaming Isles $6.99 79 51% 2.4k $17k (exactly $16,566) YawningDad
Storm Seas · EA $14.99 19 52% 570 $8.5k (exactly $8,544) Dclares Dev
Dockside Dreams – Fish & Cook Simulator $7.99 22 59% 660 $5.3k (exactly $5,273) C51 Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.