Do I ship it?

Games › Crafting › Crafting + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Crafting game?

Crafting + Nature

Of 207 developers who shipped a Nature Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 508 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2134 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 508 games are announced against 128 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 508 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 207
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $5.1k → $839 → $1.9k → $2.7k → $2.0k → $1.5k (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 207
Bottom 30% $718 (exactly $718)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $35,526)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,340,464)
Developers, 2 yr 207
Released games 517
Announced 508
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Colorful, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 55,470 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 92 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 508 games are announced against 128 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ICARUS 2021 · $59M WILD HEARTS™ 2023 · $22M Going Medieval 2026 · $15M Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey 2020 · $12M Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered 2024 · $10M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ICARUS older $34.99 55,849 75% 1.7M $59M (exactly $58,624,695) RocketWerkz
WILD HEARTS™ older $69.99 10,626 48% 319k $22M (exactly $22,311,412) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey older $39.99 9,794 81% 294k $12M (exactly $11,749,862) Panache Digital Games
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered $49.99 6,860 84% 206k $10M (exactly $10,287,942) Guerrilla Games, Nixxes Software
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
STORY OF SEASONS: Grand Bazaar $49.99 3,140 93% 94k $4.7M (exactly $4,709,058) Marvelous Inc.
Len's Island $24.99 5,935 82% 178k $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) Flow Studio
Longvinter $19.99 6,951 68% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,168,515) Uuvana Studios
Eastshade older $24.99 5,183 89% 155k $3.9M (exactly $3,885,695) Eastshade Studios
Tales of the Shire: A The Lord of The Rings™ Game $34.99 3,237 81% 97k $3.4M (exactly $3,397,879) Wētā Workshop
MineMogul · EA $14.99 4,330 96% 130k $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201) NoodleForge (Gvarados & Diomonder)
Towers of Aghasba · EA $29.99 1,904 67% 57k $1.7M (exactly $1,713,029) Dreamlit inc.
Winter Burrow $19.99 2,838 89% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,701,949) Pine Creek Games
Grimshire · EA $14.99 3,243 97% 97k $1.5M (exactly $1,458,377) Acute Owl Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.