Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Mythology

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mythological Crafting game?

Crafting + Mythology

Of 38 developers who shipped a Mythological Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 99 more are announced, ×5.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $18M, ×29081 the market median. Revenue is up 145% on the market; 99 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 145% on the market, 99 announced, ×5.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Mythology
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.2k → $27k → $3.1k → $861 → $5.4k → $21k (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Mythology: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Top 25% $37k (exactly $36,914)
Top 5% $18M (exactly $18,262,681)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 78
Announced 99
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 145% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mythology
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 504,577 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $36k, 1 in 20 over $18M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 99 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Titan Quest II · EA $34.99 17,398 81% 522k $18M (exactly $18,262,681) Grimlore Games
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin older $29.99 5,004 92% 150k $4.5M (exactly $4,502,099) Edelweiss
Thea: The Awakening older $19.99 3,318 87% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,989,805) MuHa Games
Yaoling: Mythical Journey $19.99 2,854 90% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,711,544) RAYKA STUDIO
Aces & Adventures older $19.99 2,220 89% 67k $1.3M (exactly $1,331,334) Triple.B.Titles
Niffelheim older $19.99 1,820 73% 55k $1.1M (exactly $1,091,454) Ellada Games
Dawn of Defiance · EA older $19.99 1,734 77% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,039,880) Traega Entertainment
Camelot Unchained · EA $9.99 369 38% 11k $111k (exactly $110,589) Unchained Entertainment
ArkCraft: The Rebirth of the World $10.99 181 71% 5.4k $60k (exactly $59,676) ZD Yazilim
The Last King · EA $14.99 122 79% 3.7k $55k (exactly $54,863) Mayawi software
Ash & Rust $19.99 85 63% 2.6k $51k (exactly $50,974) Ash and Rust Studios
ASTROBOTANICA · EA $19.99 76 59% 2.3k $46k (exactly $45,577) Space Goblin Studio
Kiln $7.99 154 74% 4.6k $37k (exactly $36,914) Double Fine Productions

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.