Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Mechs

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mech Crafting game?

Crafting + Mechs

Only 16 developers shipped a Mech Crafting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $25k, ×40 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $10M, ×16382 the market median. Revenue is up 4190% on the market; 22 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 40.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 4190% on the market, 22 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Mechs
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $235k → $8.7k → $3.6k → $86k (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Mechs: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $2.3k (exactly $2,279)
Median $25k (exactly $25,387)
Top 25% $219k (exactly $219,454)
Top 5% $10M (exactly $10,287,942)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 45
Announced 22
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 4190% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mechs
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Crafting
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 14,397 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.3k, median $25k, 1 in 4 over $210k, 1 in 20 over $10M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.3k. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Generation Zero® older $24.99 29,115 75% 873k $22M (exactly $21,827,516) Systemic Reaction™
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered $49.99 6,860 84% 206k $10M (exactly $10,287,942) Guerrilla Games, Nixxes Software
Lightyear Frontier · EA older $24.99 4,257 83% 128k $3.2M (exactly $3,191,473) FRAME BREAK
CryoFall older $19.99 4,905 78% 147k $2.9M (exactly $2,941,528) AtomicTorch Studio
Pax Autocratica · EA $29.99 3,202 91% 96k $2.9M (exactly $2,880,839) Multiverse
TerraTech Legion $9.99 2,109 81% 63k $632k (exactly $632,067) Payload Studios
Mech Mechanic Simulator older $19.99 538 61% 16k $323k (exactly $322,639) Polyslash
First Dwarf · EA older $24.99 314 76% 9.4k $235k (exactly $235,406) Star Drifters
Mining Mechs older $2.99 2,577 89% 77k $231k (exactly $231,157) Delayed Victory
LIFE EFFECT Survival · EA $14.99 488 85% 15k $219k (exactly $219,454) LIFE EFFECT
BREAK ARTS III $17.99 334 80% 10k $180k (exactly $180,260) MercuryStudio
Super Mining Mechs $4.99 841 86% 25k $126k (exactly $125,898) Delayed Victory
Mining Merchant $6.99 410 88% 12k $86k (exactly $85,977) Delayed Victory
Animalkind · EA $19.99 68 91% 2.0k $41k (exactly $40,780) Uncommon Games
Try to survive Today · EA $10.99 77 68% 2.3k $25k (exactly $25,387) VIVA
Wings of Aviora · EA $24.99 8 87% 240 $6.0k (exactly $5,998) Stormy XP

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.