Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Match 3

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Match 3?

Crafting + Match 3

Only 5 developers shipped a Crafting Match 3 in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mineshaft, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 more are announced, ×8.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 0 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $300 against a market of $630. 8 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 8 announced, ×8.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Match 3
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $60 → $298 → $359
Outcomes for Crafting + Match 3: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $298 (exactly $298)
Top 25% $359 (exactly $359)
Top 5% $479 (exactly $479)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 30
Announced 8
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: too few recent games to read.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Match 3
Price point
$3.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 677 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $300, 1 in 4 over $350, 1 in 20 over $470.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 8 games are announced against 0 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Re:DESTINY older $3.99 430 76% 13k $51k (exactly $51,471) D-Ark Studio
Minesweeper Collector 2 older $9.99 97 89% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Anton Kryukov
Faerie Solitaire Dire · EA older $19.99 41 68% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) Subsoap
Geolosys older $5.99 42 85% 1.3k $7.5k (exactly $7,547) SUJIKO Media Group
Puzzle Forge Dungeon older $9.99 25 68% 750 $7.5k (exactly $7,492) Tuesday Quest
Yum Collector older $4.99 20 85% 600 $3.0k (exactly $2,994) Eon Gate Innovations
Dale Hardshovel HD older $3.99 13 61% 390 $1.6k (exactly $1,556) phime studio LLC
Saving Clicklandia older $6.99 4 75% 120 $839 (exactly $839) Sky Bros
Mineshaft · EA $7.99 2 50% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Z Sculpt Entertainment
Merge Guard $3.99 3 66% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Raido Studios
Sexycraft older $3.99 3 100% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Slippy Floor
Paint Puzzle Quest $1.99 5 100% 150 $298 (exactly $298) Boogygames Studios
Digital Revolution $1.99 3 100% 90 $179 (exactly $179) Team IO
OnlyGame $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) 小桨哥

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.