Do I ship it?

Games › Crafting › Crafting + Logic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Logic game?

Crafting + Logic

Of 102 developers who shipped a Crafting Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 169 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $610k, ×975 the market median. Revenue is up 330% on the market; 169 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 330% on the market, 169 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Logic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 102
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $1.2k → $3.4k → $1.6k → $1.0k → $1.0k → $2.4k (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Logic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 102
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $7.9k (exactly $7,913)
Top 5% $613k (exactly $612,505)
Developers, 2 yr 102
Released games 280
Announced 169
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 330% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Logic; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Automation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 26,111 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $7.9k, 1 in 20 over $610k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 9 in 10 of the 57 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 169 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

shapez 2 - Factory 2026 · $12M Stationeers 2017 · EA · $9.0M shapez 2020 · $4.3M Turing Complete 2021 · EA · $3.3M Mind Over Magic 2025 · $3.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
Stationeers · EA older $34.99 8,597 88% 258k $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) RocketWerkz
shapez older $9.99 14,252 96% 428k $4.3M (exactly $4,271,324) Tobias Springer
Turing Complete · EA older $19.99 5,520 95% 166k $3.3M (exactly $3,310,344) LevelHead
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
Electrician Simulator older $17.99 4,061 80% 122k $2.2M (exactly $2,191,722) Take IT Studio!
Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure $29.99 1,867 82% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740) Massive Miniteam
Alchemy Factory $17.99 2,529 87% 76k $1.4M (exactly $1,364,901) D5 Copperhead
Good Company older $24.99 1,480 73% 44k $1.1M (exactly $1,109,556) Chasing Carrots
Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor older $19.99 1,758 78% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,054,273) Stray Fawn Studio
Little Rocket Lab $19.99 1,286 90% 39k $771k (exactly $771,214) Teenage Astronauts
Modulus: Factory Automation $24.99 817 90% 25k $613k (exactly $612,505) Happy Volcano
Atomcraft $14.99 407 94% 12k $183k (exactly $183,028) Triplejump
The Last FARMER $12.99 258 56% 7.7k $101k (exactly $100,543) Geekon
Block Factory $9.99 251 77% 7.5k $75k (exactly $75,225) OverPowered Team
The Apothecary of Trubiz $3.99 536 94% 16k $64k (exactly $64,159) kinjo, Image Labo

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.