Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Investigation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Investigation game?

Crafting + Investigation

Only 19 developers shipped a Crafting Investigation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Horror at Highrook, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 69 more are announced, ×7.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×440 the market median. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 69 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 69 announced, ×7.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Investigation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $6.6k → $1.8k → $1.2k → $1.8k (still earning) → $4.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Investigation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $6.6k (exactly $6,593)
Top 5% $276k (exactly $276,462)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 55
Announced 69
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Investigation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 1,353 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $6.5k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 69 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Project Winter older $9.99 13,662 84% 410k $4.1M (exactly $4,094,501) Other Ocean Interactive
Wytchwood older $19.99 4,030 92% 121k $2.4M (exactly $2,416,791) Alientrap
We. The Revolution older $19.99 1,997 73% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,197,601) Polyslash
Hard Time III older $14.99 929 85% 28k $418k (exactly $417,771) MDickie
The Horror at Highrook $19.99 461 90% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Nullpointer Games
Logiart Grimoire older $19.99 336 94% 10k $201k (exactly $201,499) Jupiter Corporation
Edge of Sanity older $19.99 193 67% 5.8k $116k (exactly $115,742) Vixa Games
CLeM older $15.99 239 92% 7.2k $115k (exactly $114,648) Mango Protocol
Digger: Galactic Treasures $4.99 711 87% 21k $106k (exactly $106,437) RainStyle games
Parking Tycoon 2: Business Simulator · EA $12.99 76 43% 2.3k $30k (exactly $29,617) Geekon
Hazard Pay $16.99 24 100% 720 $12k (exactly $12,233) Smitner Studio
Castaway Hand $9.99 22 36% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) BAOCHUAN
InfinityMine · EA $8.99 16 68% 480 $4.3k (exactly $4,315) HayaseWorks
Sea of Electronica $4.99 27 74% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) Playbooster
Undefined Survivors -アンディファインド サバイバーズ- · EA $29.99 2 0% 60 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Runpath Inc.
Forlorn: The mysteries of Highshadowland $9.99 6 66% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) The Spiteful Games
Look At Me $4.99 8 62% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Silly Tiger

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.