Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Incremental game?

Crafting + Incremental

Of 210 developers who shipped a Crafting Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 307 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $320; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×243 the market median. Revenue is up 420% on the market; 307 games are announced against 153 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 420% on the market, 307 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 210
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $734 → $4.0k → $748 → $1.5k → $1.2k → $1.0k → $1.4k (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 210
Bottom 30% $313 (exactly $313)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 25% $6.0k (exactly $5,988)
Top 5% $152k (exactly $152,380)
Developers, 2 yr 210
Released games 453
Announced 307
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 420% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Incremental; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Idler, Simulation, Resource Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 15,760 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $320, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $320. 8 in 10 of the 78 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 307 games are announced against 153 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Startup Company older $12.99 5,853 81% 176k $2.3M (exactly $2,280,914) Hovgaard Games
BitCraft Online · EA $15.99 3,334 72% 100k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) Clockwork Laboratories, Inc.
Outpath older $14.99 2,898 92% 87k $1.3M (exactly $1,303,231) David Moralejo Sánchez
Weedcraft Inc older $19.99 1,549 79% 46k $929k (exactly $928,935) Vile Monarch
Swag and Sorcery older $12.99 2,318 54% 70k $903k (exactly $903,325) Lazy Bear Games, Uroboros Games
Orb of Creation $11.99 2,167 84% 65k $779k (exactly $779,470) MarpleGames
KOTAMON: My Sis Found A Super-Rare Card In Her Cereal Box, So I Became A Garbage Man To Find The Entire Collection And Earn $1,000,000 $6.99 2,489 81% 75k $522k (exactly $521,943) KotaMota Games
Space Warlord Organ Trading Simulator older $19.99 827 92% 25k $496k (exactly $495,952) Strange Scaffold
Weapon Shop Fantasy older $9.99 1,560 78% 47k $468k (exactly $467,532) INDIECN
Click Mage $4.99 2,529 91% 76k $379k (exactly $378,591) Tiny Crow Games
Forage Wizard $6.99 1,549 87% 46k $325k (exactly $324,825) Lost Maxim
Nomad Idle $9.99 852 64% 26k $255k (exactly $255,344) The Fox Knocks
Military Incremental Complex $9.99 692 82% 21k $207k (exactly $207,392) Space Kraken Studios
Desktop Raid $8.99 672 76% 20k $181k (exactly $181,238) Lee_Studio
Zad Archery $6.99 803 73% 24k $168k (exactly $168,389) Samharia Studios
Bloobs Adventure Idle $7.99 673 88% 20k $161k (exactly $161,318) Bloobs_Dev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.