Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Hidden Object

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Hidden Object?

Crafting + Hidden Object

Of 67 developers who shipped a Crafting Hidden Object in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 105 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×169 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 105 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 105 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Hidden Object
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 67
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $716 → $3.0k → $11k → $1.8k → $1.5k → $2.2k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Hidden Object: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 67
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,395)
Top 5% $106k (exactly $106,437)
Developers, 2 yr 67
Released games 176
Announced 105
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Hidden Object
effort 2 / 10 · high · static scenes with click targets

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Hidden Object; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Simulation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Relaxing, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 4,443 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $5.3k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 105 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cozy Grove older $14.99 7,512 89% 225k $3.4M (exactly $3,378,146) Spry Fox
Last Room older $29.99 953 73% 29k $857k (exactly $857,414) Quantum Forge Studios
Russian Village Simulator older $29.99 889 84% 27k $800k (exactly $799,833) VD Games, PropilGames
My Wife Threw Out My Card Collection (So I Bought a Dump to Find Them All) ⭐ $7.95 1,601 65% 48k $382k (exactly $381,838) Polnoch
Hero of the Kingdom III older $9.99 1,234 78% 37k $370k (exactly $369,830) Lonely Troops
Center Station Simulator · EA older $19.99 554 87% 17k $332k (exactly $332,234) Nightmare Phoenix
LIFE EFFECT Survival · EA $14.99 488 85% 15k $219k (exactly $219,454) LIFE EFFECT
Logiart Grimoire older $19.99 336 94% 10k $201k (exactly $201,499) Jupiter Corporation
Afterinfection $8.99 463 56% 14k $125k (exactly $124,871) RePatrick21
Dead District: Survival older $9.99 415 48% 12k $124k (exactly $124,376) BadBit Games
Digger: Galactic Treasures $4.99 711 87% 21k $106k (exactly $106,437) RainStyle games
The Last FARMER $12.99 258 56% 7.7k $101k (exactly $100,543) Geekon
Frozen Ship · EA $19.99 142 76% 4.3k $85k (exactly $85,157) Nionetix
The Apothecary of Trubiz $3.99 536 94% 16k $64k (exactly $64,159) kinjo, Image Labo
Cozy Grove: Camp Spirit $19.99 106 89% 3.2k $64k (exactly $63,568) Spry Fox
Siren's Well $24.99 62 66% 1.9k $46k (exactly $46,481) OneManOnly Studios
Parking Tycoon 2: Business Simulator · EA $12.99 76 43% 2.3k $30k (exactly $29,617) Geekon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.