Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic Crafting game?

Crafting + Gothic

Only 18 developers shipped a Gothic Crafting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Gothic 1 Remake, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.5k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $39M, ×62706 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 34 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 34 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Crafting + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,317)
Median $8.5k (exactly $8,544)
Top 25% $89k (exactly $88,688)
Top 5% $39M (exactly $39,379,123)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 33
Announced 34
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 250% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 34,902 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $8.5k, 1 in 4 over $88k, 1 in 20 over $39M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 34 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Gothic 1 Remake $49.99 26,258 88% 788k $39M (exactly $39,379,123) Alkimia Interactive
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night older $39.99 29,588 93% 888k $35M (exactly $35,496,724) ArtPlay
Of Ash and Steel $29.99 6,091 66% 183k $5.5M (exactly $5,480,073) Fire & Frost
Wytchwood older $19.99 4,030 92% 121k $2.4M (exactly $2,416,791) Alientrap
Deathtrap older $19.99 1,858 84% 56k $1.1M (exactly $1,114,243) NeocoreGames
Vampires: Bloodlord Rising · EA $19.99 1,631 70% 49k $978k (exactly $978,111) Mehuman Games
The Horror at Highrook $19.99 461 90% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Nullpointer Games
Peregrino $16.99 174 65% 5.2k $89k (exactly $88,688) Inverge Studios
Naudrion: Fall of The Empire · EA older $19.99 97 67% 2.9k $58k (exactly $58,171) Aleksey Skvortsov
Tales of Old: Dominus $14.99 129 47% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,011) Hvmana Industries MMD
Ash & Rust $19.99 85 63% 2.6k $51k (exactly $50,974) Ash and Rust Studios
RAVENSBURG $14.99 45 95% 1.4k $20k (exactly $20,236) Lilian Duleroux
Aris Arcanum $14.99 19 73% 570 $8.5k (exactly $8,544) Broken Cane
Tales of Eden: Midgard $19.99 9 44% 270 $5.4k (exactly $5,397) Steamtrack Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.