Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Crafting game?

Crafting + Futuristic

Of 82 developers who shipped a Futuristic Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 258 more are announced, ×5.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×6.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $10M, ×16382 the market median. Revenue is up 285% on the market; 258 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 285% on the market, 258 announced, ×5.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 82
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $1.2k → $5.0k → $3.9k → $2.1k → $3.9k → $4.5k (still earning) → $5.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 82
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,774)
Top 25% $42k (exactly $42,258)
Top 5% $10M (exactly $10,287,942)
Developers, 2 yr 82
Released games 222
Announced 258
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 285% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Base Building, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 355,406 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $42k, 1 in 20 over $10M.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 8 in 10 of the 44 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 258 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Terminator: Resistance older $39.99 16,665 91% 500k $20M (exactly $19,993,000) Teyon
The Alters $34.99 15,330 90% 460k $16M (exactly $16,091,901) 11 bit studios
Cronos: The New Dawn $59.99 7,753 87% 233k $14M (exactly $13,953,074) Bloober Team
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered $49.99 6,860 84% 206k $10M (exactly $10,287,942) Guerrilla Games, Nixxes Software
Dead Space™ 3 older $19.99 12,238 72% 367k $7.3M (exactly $7,339,129) Visceral Games
Forever Skies $29.99 8,138 78% 244k $7.3M (exactly $7,321,759) Far From Home
Homefront®: The Revolution older $19.99 11,393 63% 342k $6.8M (exactly $6,832,382) Dambuster Studios
GRAV · EA older $19.99 4,451 49% 134k $2.7M (exactly $2,669,265) BitMonster, Inc.
Farlands $17.99 1,628 89% 49k $879k (exactly $878,632) JanduSoft, Eric Rodríguez
Modulus: Factory Automation $24.99 817 90% 25k $613k (exactly $612,505) Happy Volcano
Microtopia $19.99 881 87% 26k $528k (exactly $528,336) Cordyceps Collective
Outworld Station $18.99 807 84% 24k $460k (exactly $459,748) Trickjump Games Ltd

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.