Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Farming

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Farming Crafting game?

Crafting + Farming

Of 58 developers who shipped a Farming Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 83 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.4k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.4M, ×7085 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 83 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 83 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Farming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $478 → $800k → $138k → $25k → $18k → $1.8k → $8.4k (still earning) → $104k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Farming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Median $8.4k (exactly $8,392)
Top 25% $53k (exactly $52,876)
Top 5% $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 118
Announced 83
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Farming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Simulation, Farming Sim
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 77,879 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.6k, median $8.4k, 1 in 4 over $52k, 1 in 20 over $4.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.6k. 8 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 83 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dinkum $19.99 24,641 92% 739k $15M (exactly $14,777,208) James Bendon
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
Len's Island $24.99 5,935 82% 178k $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) Flow Studio
DORAEMON STORY OF SEASONS older $49.99 1,845 81% 55k $2.8M (exactly $2,766,946) Marvelous Inc., Brownies Inc.
Kynseed older $24.99 3,513 83% 105k $2.6M (exactly $2,633,696) PixelCount Studios
Solarpunk™ $22.99 3,492 81% 105k $2.4M (exactly $2,408,432) Cyberwave
Rune Factory 5 older $39.99 1,940 76% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,327,418) Marvelous Inc.
Aloft · EA $24.99 3,057 82% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833) Astrolabe Interactive Inc.
Doloc Town $19.99 3,166 94% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,898,650) RedSaw Games Studio
Rune Factory 4 Special older $29.99 2,070 88% 62k $1.9M (exactly $1,862,379) Marvelous Inc.
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
Outbound $24.99 1,788 73% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,340,464) Square Glade Games
Zombie Graveyard Simulator $14.99 805 89% 24k $362k (exactly $362,008) threeW
Farming & Supermarket Simulator $11.99 835 79% 25k $300k (exactly $300,350) EY08 Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.