Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective Crafting game?

Crafting + Detective

Only 7 developers shipped a Detective Crafting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Six Shake Coin, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×7.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $120 against a market of $630. 28 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 810% on the market, 28 announced, ×7.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $210 → $23k → $59
Outcomes for Crafting + Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $120 (exactly $120)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 5% $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 25
Announced 28
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 810% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 888 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $120, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $2.0k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 28 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Logiart Grimoire older $19.99 336 94% 10k $201k (exactly $201,499) Jupiter Corporation
Edge of Sanity older $19.99 193 67% 5.8k $116k (exactly $115,742) Vixa Games
CLeM older $15.99 239 92% 7.2k $115k (exactly $114,648) Mango Protocol
Let Me Out older $9.99 76 81% 2.3k $23k (exactly $22,777) 4Happy Studio
Six Shake Coin $4.99 14 92% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) CSTG-小光
Forlorn: The mysteries of Highshadowland $9.99 6 66% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) The Spiteful Games
So Much Stuff 3: Odds & Ends older $11.99 4 100% 120 $1.4k (exactly $1,439) Tiny Little Lion
Montero older $3.99 10 60% 300 $1.2k (exactly $1,197) Reb_Orn
ESCAPE IT older $3.99 6 83% 180 $718 (exactly $718) Kryakozyabrik Games
The Dawning older $4.99 4 75% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Beau Yotka
Sudoku Bactron $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Bactron Studio
Huiyu Spy Draw $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Huiyu
谜境·AI剧本杀互动剧场 $0.99 2 50% 60 $59 (exactly $59) 灵思AI工作室
Last Question $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 夜行者
Regulars · EA $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Toast Game Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.