Do I ship it?

Games › Crafting › Crafting + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Deckbuilding?

Crafting + Deckbuilding

Of 62 developers who shipped a Crafting Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 114 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $710k, ×1136 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 114 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 114 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 62
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $198k → $22k → $4.1M → $3.0k → $14k → $719 (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 62
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,157)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $22,178)
Top 5% $713k (exactly $713,223)
Developers, 2 yr 62
Released games 104
Announced 114
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 190% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Deckbuilding; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Building, Management
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 25,806 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $710k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 6 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 114 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Magicraft 2024 · $7.2M Potionomics 2022 · $5.2M The Matchless Kungfu 2024 · $4.1M BOOK OF HOURS 2023 · $3.1M Aces & Adventures 2023 · $1.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Potionomics older $24.99 6,973 90% 209k $5.2M (exactly $5,227,658) Voracious Games
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
BOOK OF HOURS older $24.99 4,129 89% 124k $3.1M (exactly $3,095,511) Weather Factory
Aces & Adventures older $19.99 2,220 89% 67k $1.3M (exactly $1,331,334) Triple.B.Titles
Ooblets older $29.99 1,388 91% 42k $1.2M (exactly $1,248,784) Glumberland
In Falsus $39.99 788 89% 24k $945k (exactly $945,364) lowiro
ShapeHero Factory $23.99 991 88% 30k $713k (exactly $713,223) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
WitchHand older $11.99 616 90% 18k $222k (exactly $221,575) Jon Nielsen
Turnbound $14.99 446 78% 13k $201k (exactly $200,566) 1TK
Bombunter $39.99 106 89% 3.2k $127k (exactly $127,168) Clava STOVE
Goblin Sushi · EA $9.99 404 89% 12k $121k (exactly $121,079) Old Cake Factory
ROGUE LIGHT DECK BUILDER $3.99 888 94% 27k $106k (exactly $106,294) Gil Lawson
Entertainment Simulator $18.99 181 73% 5.4k $103k (exactly $103,116) Grizzbera Studio
Kaya's Prophecy $13.99 196 70% 5.9k $82k (exactly $82,261) Jérémie & Thibaut

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.