Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Cyberpunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cyberpunk Crafting game?

Crafting + Cyberpunk

Only 17 developers shipped a Cyberpunk Crafting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, TerraTech Legion, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 78 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $59; 1 in 20 cleared $630k, ×1006 the market median. Revenue is up 7795% on the market; 78 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 7795% on the market, 78 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Cyberpunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $2.2k → $3.0k (still earning) → $9.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Cyberpunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,967)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,290)
Top 5% $632k (exactly $632,067)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 57
Announced 78
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 7795% on the market, supply 365% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Cyberpunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Automation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 2,712 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $630k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 78 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
UnderRail older $14.99 6,385 86% 192k $2.9M (exactly $2,871,334) Stygian Software
TerraTech Legion $9.99 2,109 81% 63k $632k (exactly $632,067) Payload Studios
Mars: War Logs older $4.99 2,450 75% 74k $367k (exactly $366,765) Spiders
Mech Mechanic Simulator older $19.99 538 61% 16k $323k (exactly $322,639) Polyslash
Dynopunk older $14.99 456 93% 14k $205k (exactly $205,063) Tomato Fantasy Games
Sphere - Flying Cities older $17.99 178 44% 5.3k $96k (exactly $96,067) mañana studios
Gimbal older $14.99 130 79% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,461) 8888888 LABS
Elvenfoundry $34.99 46 67% 1.4k $48k (exactly $48,286) SunbathGames
Part-Time Witch $6.99 217 78% 6.5k $46k (exactly $45,505) Eyed Mushroom
Mechanic 8230: Escape from Ilgrot older $12.99 111 90% 3.3k $43k (exactly $43,257) Nudiventra
UNHUMAN $3.99 161 73% 4.8k $19k (exactly $19,272) Kinda Lowkey Games
RoadOut $14.99 34 97% 1.0k $15k (exactly $15,290) Rastrolabs Game Studio
Midnight Moments $2.99 108 92% 3.2k $9.7k (exactly $9,688) Happy Volcano
Prometheus Wept · EA $15.99 14 92% 420 $6.7k (exactly $6,716) Timeslip Softworks
Shifting Sands · EA $19.99 11 100% 330 $6.6k (exactly $6,597) Silent Sun
Bots & Mods $8.99 11 72% 330 $3.0k (exactly $2,967) Bit66
Cryowakers $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Checkbox Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.