Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Crafting game?

Crafting + Crime

Of 27 developers who shipped a Crime Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 75 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $660; 1 in 20 cleared $480k, ×780 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 75 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 75 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $3.6k (still earning) → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $659 (exactly $659)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $35,986)
Top 5% $490k (exactly $489,942)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 46
Announced 75
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 185% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Crafting; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Simulation, Action
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 97% positive over 291,681 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $660, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $480k.

3 in 10 developers made under $660. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 75 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Drug Dealer Simulator older $19.99 18,297 85% 549k $11M (exactly $10,972,711) Byterunners
Drug Dealer Simulator 2 older $24.99 5,480 69% 164k $4.1M (exactly $4,108,356) Byterunners
We. The Revolution older $19.99 1,997 73% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,197,601) Polyslash
Weedcraft Inc older $19.99 1,549 79% 46k $929k (exactly $928,935) Vile Monarch
Drug Lord Tycoon · EA older $9.99 1,671 83% 50k $501k (exactly $500,799) Duhndal
Saloon Simulator · EA $18.99 860 89% 26k $490k (exactly $489,942) Glivi Games S.A.
Hard Time III older $14.99 929 85% 28k $418k (exactly $417,771) MDickie
Dirty Business · EA $14.99 906 75% 27k $407k (exactly $407,428) Plan Dirty Games
Prison Boss VR older $19.99 414 87% 12k $248k (exactly $248,276) TREBUCHET
The Boss Gangster: Criminal Empire · EA $18.99 385 81% 12k $219k (exactly $219,334) BEF GAMES
Crime Shop Simulator: A Prison Boss Game $19.99 157 85% 4.7k $94k (exactly $94,153) TREBUCHET
ZOMBUTCHER: Monster Business Simulator $12.99 135 69% 4.1k $53k (exactly $52,610) ODIUS
My Drug Cartel · EA $24.99 48 50% 1.4k $36k (exactly $35,986) Gigicom
Toll Booth Simulator $12.99 91 71% 2.7k $35k (exactly $35,463) SifDev
The Brewline $9.99 110 84% 3.3k $33k (exactly $32,967) Alcora Games
Speakeasy Simulator $11.99 50 88% 1.5k $18k (exactly $17,985) Arcana Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.