Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Cooking

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cooking RPG?

RPG + Cooking

Of 102 developers who shipped a Cooking RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 278 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×17 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.3M, ×5411 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 278 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 278 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Cooking
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 102
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $839 → $7.2k → $6.6k → $72k → $26k → $3.9k → $1.7k (still earning) → $9.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Cooking: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 102
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,139)
Median $10k (exactly $10,492)
Top 25% $120k (exactly $119,952)
Top 5% $3.4M (exactly $3,397,879)
Developers, 2 yr 102
Released games 251
Announced 278
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Cooking
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Cooking; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Crafting, Farming Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, Cute, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 77,558 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $3.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 5 in 10 of the 46 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 278 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Black Desert 2017 · $19M Sun Haven 2023 · $17M The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty 2024 · $15M Fields of Mistria 2026 · $13M SULFUR 2024 · EA · $7.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Black Desert older $9.99 63,052 75% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,896,684) Pearl Abyss
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty older $9.99 49,765 94% 1.5M $15M (exactly $14,914,570) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
SULFUR · EA $24.99 9,641 87% 289k $7.2M (exactly $7,227,858) Perfect Random
Starsand Island $39.99 5,898 76% 177k $7.1M (exactly $7,075,831) Seed Sparkle Lab
Touhou Mystia's Izakaya older $5.99 29,517 98% 886k $5.3M (exactly $5,304,205) 二色幽紫蝶, Re零同人社
Tavern Keeper 🍻 · EA $29.99 4,563 94% 137k $4.1M (exactly $4,105,331) Greenheart Games 💚
Dungeon Munchies older $19.99 6,596 97% 198k $4.0M (exactly $3,955,621) maJAJa
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Tales of the Shire: A The Lord of The Rings™ Game $34.99 3,237 81% 97k $3.4M (exactly $3,397,879) Wētā Workshop
Doloc Town $19.99 3,166 94% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,898,650) RedSaw Games Studio
Grimshire · EA $14.99 3,243 97% 97k $1.5M (exactly $1,458,377) Acute Owl Studio
Aeruta $19.99 2,391 94% 72k $1.4M (exactly $1,433,883) FromDawn Games
Bloomtown: A Different Story $24.99 1,428 85% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,070,572) Lazy Bear Games, Different Sense Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.