Do I ship it?

Games › Shoot 'Em Up › Shoot 'Em Up + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Shoot 'Em Up?

Shoot 'Em Up + Lovecraftian

Only 8 developers shipped a Lovecraftian Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SealChain: Call of Blood, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.1k, ×17 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×305 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 20 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 17.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 20 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shoot 'Em Up + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $3.1k → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shoot 'Em Up + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $8.1k (exactly $8,092)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $22,777)
Top 5% $145k (exactly $144,829)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 32
Announced 20
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Shoot 'Em Up
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 32,750 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $8.1k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 20 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shoot 'Em Up with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FaithFair13 devs · median $17k · 13 announced
  2. + RomanceFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  4. + Quick-Time EventsFair8 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair39 devs · median $628 · 36 announced
  6. + IdlerFair36 devs · median $628 · 14 announced
  7. + Tower DefenseFair70 devs · median $599 · 54 announced
  8. + Resource ManagementFair26 devs · median $599 · 34 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair749 devs · median $419 · 783 announced
  10. + SwordplayLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  11. + MusicPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 12 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds11 devs · median $5.8k · 12 announced

All 169 pairs on the Shoot 'Em Up page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

20 Minutes Till Dawn 2023 · $4.2M HYPER DEMON 2022 · $1.4M Tesla vs Lovecraft 2018 · $383k SealChain: Call of Blood 2026 · $145k Project Tower 2025 · $23k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
HYPER DEMON older $14.99 3,087 94% 93k $1.4M (exactly $1,388,224) Sorath
Tesla vs Lovecraft older $14.99 851 89% 26k $383k (exactly $382,695) 10tons Ltd
SealChain: Call of Blood $8.99 537 56% 16k $145k (exactly $144,829) AliveGameStudio
Project Tower $9.99 76 75% 2.3k $23k (exactly $22,777) Yummy Games
Angelstruck older $5.99 117 94% 3.5k $21k (exactly $21,025) Feral Paw
Interstellar Sentinel older $11.99 49 95% 1.5k $18k (exactly $17,625) Uplifting Goat LLC.
The Dark Method · EA older $12.99 38 89% 1.1k $15k (exactly $14,809) Analog Joker LLC
Monsters 'til Midnight older $4.99 93 83% 2.8k $14k (exactly $13,922) Retro Dreamer
Cosmic Call $9.99 30 96% 900 $9.0k (exactly $8,991) CosmicDev
It Consumes $9.99 27 100% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) Sublexical
Rip & Tear $4.90 10 70% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,470) CJ
SeaQuestDungeon $7.99 5 80% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) AlchemistGame
VOIDRAVE $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Erak_Dev
Urbex Simulator $4.00 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) StrawmanBall, The Hatman, Garvfootage

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.