Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dating Sim Souls-like?

Souls-like + Dating Sim

Only 17 developers shipped a Dating Sim Souls-like in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, CODE VEIN II, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 more are announced.

Verdict: strong odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $34k, ×23 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 7 in 10 cleared $8.4k. Revenue is up 220% on the market; 8 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×1.1 per shipper.

Deciding numbers: median 22.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 220% on the market, 8 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.1k → $34k → $36k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $8.5k (exactly $8,499)
Median $34k (exactly $33,982)
Top 25% $106k (exactly $106,129)
Top 5% $11M (exactly $10,903,742)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 62
Announced 8
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 220% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Dating Sim; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, FPS, Interactive Fiction
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $54.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $54.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 9,280 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $8.5k, median $34k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $10M.

3 in 10 developers made under $8.5k. 5 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 8 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  3. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  4. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  5. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  8. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  9. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  10. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced
  12. + RobotsPoor odds12 devs · median $32k · 19 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
CODE VEIN II $69.99 5,193 66% 156k $11M (exactly $10,903,742) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
コイカツ! / Koikatsu Party older $59.99 5,298 91% 159k $9.5M (exactly $9,534,811) ILLUSION
NEKOPARA Vol. 1 older $9.99 23,405 95% 702k $7.0M (exactly $7,014,478) NEKO WORKs
Living With Sister: Monochrome Fantasy older $12.99 15,119 69% 454k $5.9M (exactly $5,891,874) Inusuku
YOU and ME and HER: A Love Story older $29.99 6,033 95% 181k $5.4M (exactly $5,427,890) Nitroplus
NEKOPARA Vol. 3 older $9.99 11,153 96% 335k $3.3M (exactly $3,342,554) NEKO WORKs
NEKOPARA Vol. 2 older $9.99 11,055 97% 332k $3.3M (exactly $3,313,184) NEKO WORKs
VR Kanojo / VRカノジョ older $49.99 1,767 76% 53k $2.6M (exactly $2,649,970) ILLUSION
NEKOPARA Vol. 4 older $9.99 8,240 97% 247k $2.5M (exactly $2,469,528) NEKO WORKs
Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- The Prophecy of the Throne older $59.99 1,042 87% 31k $1.9M (exactly $1,875,287) Chime Corporation
NEKOPARA After $9.99 1,198 90% 36k $359k (exactly $359,041) NEKO WORKs
VR-Kanojo $54.99 176 63% 5.3k $290k (exactly $290,347) ILLUMINATION
The Married Woman Nextdoor - Creampie SEX Beside Her Husband $9.99 933 86% 28k $280k (exactly $279,620) AibanWork
Frankie's FunClub $14.99 236 65% 7.1k $106k (exactly $106,129) LOVEBITES
Soul Mates · EA $12.99 95 97% 2.9k $37k (exactly $37,022) Sad Panda Studios
With Your Coworker $0.99 1,220 82% 37k $36k (exactly $36,234) 搖滾冰塊
Big Beautiful Women: Giantess Dating Action $19.99 58 93% 1.7k $35k (exactly $34,783) Rakuen Soft
Beauty’s Target $8.99 126 69% 3.8k $34k (exactly $33,982) Beauty’s Target
RAVENSBURG $14.99 45 95% 1.4k $20k (exactly $20,236) Lilian Duleroux

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.