Do I ship it?

Games › Dating Sim › Dating Sim + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Post-apocalyptic

Of 29 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $15k, ×24 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $2.6k. Revenue is flat on the market; 34 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 24.1 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 34 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $80k → $18k → $11k → $64k → $32k → $8.4k → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $2.5k (exactly $2,518)
Median $15k (exactly $15,109)
Top 25% $68k (exactly $68,075)
Top 5% $815k (exactly $814,884)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 71
Announced 34
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Dating Sim; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Visual Novel, Choices Matter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 11,024 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.6k, median $15k, 1 in 4 over $68k, 1 in 20 over $810k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.6k. 5 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  9. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  10. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  11. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  12. + NoirFair16 devs · median $10k · 18 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

My Time at Sandrock 2023 · $29M ATRI -My Dear Moments- 2020 · $13M MOTORSLICE 2026 · $3.3M Eternights 2023 · $2.7M eden* 2015 · $2.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
ATRI -My Dear Moments- older $20.99 21,411 98% 642k $13M (exactly $13,482,507) Frontwing, 枕
MOTORSLICE $19.99 5,467 85% 164k $3.3M (exactly $3,278,560) Regular Studio
Eternights older $29.99 3,046 85% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,740,486) Studio Sai
eden* older $19.99 4,098 98% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,457,571) minori
Stella of The End older $19.99 2,858 97% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,713,943) VisualArts/Key
Our End of the World older $9.99 4,453 79% 134k $1.3M (exactly $1,334,564) 橘子班, 大好网
SubZero $9.99 2,719 92% 82k $815k (exactly $814,884) Joy Media Limited
S.H.E.L.T.E.R. - An Apocalyptic Tale older $17.99 777 88% 23k $419k (exactly $419,347) Winterlook Games
MeteoriteFall $12.99 651 78% 20k $254k (exactly $253,695) ST studio
Apocalypse with Femboy $12.99 439 89% 13k $171k (exactly $171,078) Pout Honey
HARDCODED $16.99 282 90% 8.5k $144k (exactly $143,735) Ghost Hug Games
Loot Line - Season 1 $12.99 270 74% 8.1k $105k (exactly $105,219) Candylight Studio
Sex Desert: Mad Lust $9.99 323 61% 9.7k $97k (exactly $96,803) Carnality INC
永生之庭 $7.99 284 48% 8.5k $68k (exactly $68,075) IMaiIna
Lust 'n Dead 🔞 $9.99 212 66% 6.4k $64k (exactly $63,536) Octo Games
Time Space Rebuild $4.99 377 76% 11k $56k (exactly $56,437) INNOVATION DREAM

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.