Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dating Sim FPS?

FPS + Dating Sim

Of 47 developers who shipped a Dating Sim FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $19k, ×13 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $6.9k. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 36 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 36 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 47
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $39k → $600k → $32k → $47k → $19k → $19k → $14k (still earning) → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 47
Bottom 30% $6.8k (exactly $6,834)
Median $19k (exactly $19,044)
Top 25% $83k (exactly $82,936)
Top 5% $900k (exactly $899,550)
Developers, 2 yr 47
Released games 304
Announced 36
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $0.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, Dating Sim; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Visual Novel, RPG
Price point
$0.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $0.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 13,933 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $6.9k, median $19k, 1 in 4 over $82k, 1 in 20 over $890k.

3 in 10 developers made under $6.9k. 8 in 10 of the 54 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  3. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  4. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  5. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  6. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  8. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  9. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  10. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  11. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced
  12. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds29 devs · median $219k · 57 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ULTRAKILL 2020 · EA · $192M Summer Memories 2020 · $14M Neon White 2022 · $13M 魔女的夜宴 2023 · $10M コイカツ！ / Koikatsu Party 2019 · $9.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ULTRAKILL · EA older $29.99 213,450 97% 6.4M $192M (exactly $192,040,965) Arsi "Hakita" Patala
Summer Memories older $19.99 24,113 92% 723k $14M (exactly $14,460,566) Dojin Otome
Neon White older $24.99 17,259 97% 518k $13M (exactly $12,939,072) Angel Matrix
魔女的夜宴 older $34.99 9,664 98% 290k $10M (exactly $10,144,301) YUZUSOFT
コイカツ！ / Koikatsu Party older $59.99 5,298 91% 159k $9.5M (exactly $9,534,811) ILLUSION
Azur Lane Crosswave older $39.99 6,537 68% 196k $7.8M (exactly $7,842,439) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, FELISTELLA
港詭實錄ParanormalHK older $12.99 18,874 89% 566k $7.4M (exactly $7,355,198) Ghostpie Studio
Winter Memories older $19.99 10,365 97% 311k $6.2M (exactly $6,215,890) Dojin Otome
Riddle Joker older $34.99 5,715 97% 171k $6.0M (exactly $5,999,036) YUZUSOFT
Living With Sister: Monochrome Fantasy older $12.99 15,119 69% 454k $5.9M (exactly $5,891,874) Inusuku
Romantic Escapades $19.99 5,587 94% 168k $3.4M (exactly $3,350,524) 蠑螈
Hello Love: 18 Again $19.99 2,075 92% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,244,378) 念念而忘(Echofall Studio)
Sickly Days and Summer Traces $19.99 1,500 93% 45k $900k (exactly $899,550) Sister Position
Natsu no Sagashimono ~What We Found That Summer~ $14.99 1,094 87% 33k $492k (exactly $491,972) pekoge-sutagio
NEKOPARA After $9.99 1,198 90% 36k $359k (exactly $359,041) NEKO WORKs
哎呦!这么多美女呀! $18.99 609 91% 18k $347k (exactly $346,947) Hangzhou Miqi Technology Co.,Ltd
Island Notes $12.99 884 82% 27k $344k (exactly $344,495) KangBaoGame
Select Oblige $29.99 375 76% 11k $337k (exactly $337,388) Madosoft
Frankie's FunClub $14.99 236 65% 7.1k $106k (exactly $106,129) LOVEBITES
每日亲亲洛丽塔 $8.99 375 74% 11k $101k (exactly $101,138) 夜羊社

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.