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Should I ship a Combat Visual Novel?
Combat + Visual Novel
Of 74 developers who shipped a Combat Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 100 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $660; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×353 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 100 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $659 (exactly $659) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.6k (exactly $3,593) |
| Top 25% | $19k (exactly $18,862) |
| Top 5% | $222k (exactly $221,719) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 74 |
| Released games | 194 |
| Announced | 100 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Combat
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Combat, Visual Novel; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Action
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 4,293 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $660. 8 in 10 of the 41 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 100 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds
- + 4XFair
- + TypingFair
- + VampiresFair
- + SnowFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + Match 3Long shot
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + Political SimPoor odds
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + LGBTQ+Poor odds
Comparable games
Wars and Roses 2022 · $1.5M 
Hero's Journey 2022 · $760k 
Waifu Fighter 2022 · $642k 
Half-Demon Shinobi 2024 · $409k 
Jerez's Arena 2020 · $389k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Wars and Roses | older | $19.99 | 2,435 42% | 73k | $1.5M (exactly $1,460,270) | Blaze Worlds |
| | Hero's Journey | older | $14.99 | 1,690 79% | 51k | $760k (exactly $759,993) | Jun Takahashi |
| | Waifu Fighter | older | $7.99 | 2,677 86% | 80k | $642k (exactly $641,677) | Happy Monster Studio |
| | Half-Demon Shinobi | $10.99 | 1,242 89% | 37k | $409k (exactly $409,487) | 樹懶叫工作室, 紳士吉娃, Maker製造機 | |
| | Jerez's Arena | older | $19.99 | 648 80% | 19k | $389k (exactly $388,606) | 永恆艾莉絲工坊, 樂磚Joy Brick |
 | Fallen Priestess: My Sister's Demonic Bloodline | $18.99 | 622 72% | 19k | $354k (exactly $354,353) | BBQ大好き | |
 | Ys X: Proud Nordics | $69.99 | 168 75% | 5.0k | $353k (exactly $352,750) | Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH | |
 | The Agnietta ~The holy healer & the cursed dungeon~ | older | $9.99 | 1,054 82% | 32k | $316k (exactly $315,884) | B-flat |
 | AURA: Hentai Cards | older | $9.99 | 1,045 80% | 31k | $313k (exactly $313,186) | TopHouse Studio, AniCore Team |
 | Artemis: Book One | older | $9.99 | 796 93% | 24k | $239k (exactly $238,561) | digi.B |
 | MMA Life Simulator | $16.99 | 435 80% | 13k | $222k (exactly $221,719) | BNS7 | |
 | Tales of Justice Academy: Winds Arise | $10.99 | 460 71% | 14k | $152k (exactly $151,662) | 九芽川 Ninth Leaf | |
 | Awaken: Hentai Dice | $14.99 | 333 57% | 10k | $150k (exactly $149,750) | TopHouse Studio | |
 | WANDERER: Broken Bed | $14.99 | 314 65% | 9.4k | $141k (exactly $141,206) | TopHouse Studio | |
 | Neptunia Game Maker R:Evolution | $29.99 | 110 76% | 3.3k | $99k (exactly $98,967) | Idea Factory, Compile Heart | |
 | Survivor Strain - Season 1 | $8.99 | 354 95% | 11k | $95k (exactly $95,474) | Mr. Baker | |
 | Warrior of Lust | $11.99 | 255 79% | 7.7k | $92k (exactly $91,724) | Aerisetta |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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