Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Turn-Based Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Turn-Based Tactics?

Combat + Turn-Based Tactics

Of 272 developers who shipped a Combat Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 482 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×319 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 482 games are announced against 162 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 482 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Turn-Based Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 272
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.2k → $9.0k → $1.7k → $1.2k → $1.2k → $1.2k → $539 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Turn-Based Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 272
Bottom 30% $178 (exactly $178)
Median $628 (exactly $628)
Top 25% $6.6k (exactly $6,593)
Top 5% $201k (exactly $200,566)
Developers, 2 yr 272
Released games 649
Announced 482
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Turn-Based Tactics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 14,246 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $630, 1 in 4 over $6.5k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 133 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 482 games are announced against 162 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Warhammer 40,000: Battlesector 2021 · $6.1M The Matchless Kungfu 2024 · $4.1M Sunderfolk 2025 · $2.8M Blackthorn Arena 2020 · $2.6M Hard West 2 2022 · $2.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Battlesector older $39.99 5,064 88% 152k $6.1M (exactly $6,075,281) Slitherine Ltd.
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
Sunderfolk $49.99 1,890 93% 57k $2.8M (exactly $2,834,433) Secret Door
Blackthorn Arena older $24.99 3,477 69% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,606,707) PersonaeGame Studio
Hard West 2 older $29.99 2,717 80% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,444,485) Ice Code Games
Cobalt Core older $19.99 4,067 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,438,980) Rocket Rat Games
Punch Club 2: Fast Forward older $19.99 3,808 81% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,283,658) Lazy Bear Games
Evenicle older $44.99 1,225 92% 37k $1.7M (exactly $1,653,382) Alicesoft
Showgunners older $29.99 1,642 93% 49k $1.5M (exactly $1,477,307) Artificer
Combat Mission Shock Force 2 older $59.99 624 80% 19k $1.1M (exactly $1,123,013) Battlefront
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Knightica $14.99 1,136 74% 34k $511k (exactly $510,859) Mad Mango Games
Titanium Court $14.99 1,094 94% 33k $492k (exactly $491,972) AP Thomson
Terrinoth®: Heroes of Descent $34.99 441 75% 13k $463k (exactly $462,918) Artefacts Studio, Shine Group
Warside $24.99 547 68% 16k $410k (exactly $410,086) LAVABIRD
Chains of Freedom $24.99 520 80% 16k $390k (exactly $389,844) Nordcurrent
The Three Kingdoms: The Tales of Jian An $17.99 690 88% 21k $372k (exactly $372,393) 开翼网络
Disciples: Domination $44.99 218 65% 6.5k $294k (exactly $294,235) Artefacts Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.