Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Turn-Based

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Turn-Based game?

Combat + Turn-Based

Of 42 developers who shipped a Combat Turn-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $13k, ×20 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.8M, ×6127 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 40 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 20.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 40 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Turn-Based
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $11k → $193k → $13k → $12k → $201k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Turn-Based: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $2.4k (exactly $2,397)
Median $13k (exactly $12,579)
Top 25% $193k (exactly $192,667)
Top 5% $3.8M (exactly $3,847,759)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 97
Announced 40
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Turn-Based; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Roguelike
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Cute, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 32,681 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $190k, 1 in 20 over $3.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 6 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Backpack Battles 2025 · $8.5M DRAGON QUEST III HD-2D Remake 2024 · $7.2M Warhammer 40,000: Battlesector 2021 · $6.1M Eiyuden Chronicle: Hundred Heroes 2024 · $4.7M DRAGON QUEST VII Reimagined 2026 · $3.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Backpack Battles $14.99 18,933 91% 568k $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170) PlayWithFurcifer
DRAGON QUEST III HD-2D Remake $59.99 4,010 75% 120k $7.2M (exactly $7,216,797) Square Enix, ARTDINK
Warhammer 40,000: Battlesector older $39.99 5,064 88% 152k $6.1M (exactly $6,075,281) Slitherine Ltd.
Eiyuden Chronicle: Hundred Heroes older $49.99 3,164 75% 95k $4.7M (exactly $4,745,051) Rabbit & Bear Studios
DRAGON QUEST VII Reimagined $59.99 2,138 88% 64k $3.8M (exactly $3,847,759) Square Enix, HEXADRIVE Inc.
DRAGON QUEST I & II HD-2D Remake $59.99 1,731 84% 52k $3.1M (exactly $3,115,281) Square Enix, ARTDINK
Edge Of Eternity older $29.99 3,377 71% 101k $3.0M (exactly $3,038,287) Midgar Studio
Hard West 2 older $29.99 2,717 80% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,444,485) Ice Code Games
Metal Slug Tactics $24.99 1,152 76% 35k $864k (exactly $863,654) Leikir Studio
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Wicked Seed $19.99 1,376 94% 41k $825k (exactly $825,187) Dead Right Games
Knightica $14.99 1,136 74% 34k $511k (exactly $510,859) Mad Mango Games
Epic Auto Towers · EA $14.99 768 70% 23k $345k (exactly $345,370) Aleksandr Golovkin
Blightstone · EA $15.99 482 76% 14k $231k (exactly $231,215) Unfinished Pixel

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.