Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Trading

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Trading game?

Combat + Trading

Of 44 developers who shipped a Combat Trading game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 104 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×609 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 104 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 104 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Trading
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 44
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $628 → $628 → $1.6k → $2.2k → $629 → $1.8k (still earning) → $5.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Trading: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 44
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,249)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $35,982)
Top 5% $383k (exactly $382,609)
Developers, 2 yr 44
Released games 110
Announced 104
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 34%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Trading; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Open World, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 59% positive over 9,173 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 104 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Ghosts of Tabor 2023 · EA · $6.9M SpiritVale 2026 · EA · $2.1M Prison Simulator 2021 · $1.4M Power & Revolution 2022 Edition 2022 · $1.2M Power & Revolution 2021 Edition 2021 · $943k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ghosts of Tabor · EA older $24.99 9,140 70% 274k $6.9M (exactly $6,852,258) Combat Waffle Studios
SpiritVale · EA $14.99 4,755 48% 143k $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) Baikun Interactive
Prison Simulator older $19.99 2,329 86% 70k $1.4M (exactly $1,396,701) Baked Games
Power & Revolution 2022 Edition older $49.99 815 60% 24k $1.2M (exactly $1,222,256) Eversim
Power & Revolution 2021 Edition older $49.99 629 56% 19k $943k (exactly $943,311) Eversim
Power & Revolution 2023 Edition older $49.99 499 60% 15k $748k (exactly $748,350) Eversim
Geo-Political Simulator 5 $59.99 391 34% 12k $704k (exactly $703,683) Eversim
Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates $19.99 638 70% 19k $383k (exactly $382,609) ReCon Team
Windward Horizon $19.99 401 79% 12k $240k (exactly $240,480) Tasharen Entertainment Inc.
TRADESMAN: Deal to Dealer $4.99 1,528 78% 46k $229k (exactly $228,742) AZAMATIKA
Bones and Coins $7.99 638 72% 19k $153k (exactly $152,929) Troyd Games
九州：立志 $11.99 235 81% 7.1k $85k (exactly $84,530) Xbgzs
Dust Raiders $15.99 160 64% 4.8k $77k (exactly $76,752) Vixa Games
Between Adventures IDLE · EA $7.99 319 71% 9.6k $76k (exactly $76,464) Loop Forge
Terror of the Seven Seas $14.99 108 78% 3.2k $49k (exactly $48,568) Cutthroat Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.