Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Top-Down Shooter?

Combat + Top-Down Shooter

Of 542 developers who shipped a Combat Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 828 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 305 developers shipped in the last year and 828 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 828 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 542
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $299 → $598 → $299 → $449 → $359 → $239 (still earning) → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 542
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $298 (exactly $298)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,812)
Top 5% $64k (exactly $64,136)
Developers, 2 yr 542
Released games 1,325
Announced 828
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Top-Down Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 82,747 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.8k, 1 in 20 over $64k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 276 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 828 games are announced against 305 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Aliens: Dark Descent 2023 · $18M Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor 2025 · $18M BALL x PIT 2025 · $11M 20 Minutes Till Dawn 2023 · $4.2M Starcom: Unknown Space 2024 · $3.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Aliens: Dark Descent older $39.99 15,310 87% 459k $18M (exactly $18,367,407) Tindalos Interactive
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
Starcom: Unknown Space older $24.99 4,464 92% 134k $3.3M (exactly $3,346,661) Wx3 Labs, LLC
Ship of Fools older $21.99 5,040 82% 151k $3.3M (exactly $3,324,888) Fika Productions
Tiny Rogues · EA older $9.99 10,244 96% 307k $3.1M (exactly $3,070,127) RubyDev
Nine Parchments older $19.99 4,123 77% 124k $2.5M (exactly $2,472,563) Frozenbyte
Star Valor older $24.99 3,272 88% 98k $2.5M (exactly $2,453,018) Rafael Burgos
Intravenous 2 older $19.99 4,069 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,440,179) Explosive Squat Games
Silly Polly Beast $19.99 2,278 90% 68k $1.4M (exactly $1,366,117) Anji
Relic Hunters Legend $19.99 1,101 65% 33k $660k (exactly $660,270) Rogue Snail
Arms of God · EA $11.50 1,871 88% 56k $645k (exactly $645,495) Dark Jay Studio
Section 13 $19.99 770 70% 23k $462k (exactly $461,769) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Rocket Rats $5.99 2,388 94% 72k $429k (exactly $429,124) Gagonfe
Sektori $14.99 897 96% 27k $403k (exactly $403,381) Kimmo Lahtinen
Achilles: Survivor $8.99 1,454 81% 44k $392k (exactly $392,144) Dark Point Games
Galactic Glitch $12.99 920 89% 28k $359k (exactly $358,524) Crunchy Leaf Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.