Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Shoot 'Em Up?

Combat + Shoot 'Em Up

Of 482 developers who shipped a Combat Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 590 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 255 developers shipped in the last year and 590 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 590 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 482
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $479 → $959 → $564 → $449 → $598 → $390 → $269 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 482
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 5% $60k (exactly $59,581)
Developers, 2 yr 482
Released games 1,382
Announced 590
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Shoot 'Em Up; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 34,731 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.0k, 1 in 20 over $59k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 263 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 590 games are announced against 255 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

PAYDAY 3 2023 · $44M BALL x PIT 2025 · $11M Crysis 2 Remastered 2022 · $8.1M Crysis 3 Remastered 2022 · $7.0M 20 Minutes Till Dawn 2023 · $4.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
PAYDAY 3 older $29.99 49,305 45% 1.5M $44M (exactly $44,359,708) Starbreeze Studios
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
Crysis 2 Remastered older $29.99 9,034 89% 271k $8.1M (exactly $8,127,890) Crytek, Saber Interactive
Crysis 3 Remastered older $29.99 7,731 88% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,955,581) Crytek, Saber Interactive
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
Project Warlock older $12.00 4,691 87% 141k $1.7M (exactly $1,688,760) Buckshot Software
Lovers in a Dangerous Spacetime older $14.99 3,368 93% 101k $1.5M (exactly $1,514,590) Asteroid Base
OTXO older $14.99 3,303 93% 99k $1.5M (exactly $1,485,359) Lateralis Heavy Industries
HYPER DEMON older $14.99 3,087 94% 93k $1.4M (exactly $1,388,224) Sorath
Disney•Pixar Cars older $19.99 1,940 89% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,163,418) Beenox
I Am Legion: Stand Survivors $8.99 2,432 82% 73k $656k (exactly $655,910) JA Game Studio
CRUEL $9.99 1,814 95% 54k $544k (exactly $543,656) James Dornan
Guns of Fury $14.99 950 88% 29k $427k (exactly $427,215) Gelato Games Ltd
HUNTDOWN: OVERTIME · EA $16.99 830 88% 25k $423k (exactly $423,051) Easy Trigger Games
Sektori $14.99 897 96% 27k $403k (exactly $403,381) Kimmo Lahtinen
Don't Stop, Girlypop! $19.99 518 83% 16k $311k (exactly $310,645) Funny Fintan Softworks
Earthion $19.99 483 95% 14k $290k (exactly $289,655) Ancient Corporation, Bitwave Games
Castle Of Alchemists $14.99 618 80% 19k $278k (exactly $277,915) Team Machiavelli
Talented $5.99 1,475 91% 44k $265k (exactly $265,058) TurtleFox Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.