Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Sailing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Sailing game?

Combat + Sailing

Of 34 developers who shipped a Combat Sailing game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.1k, ×8.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $43M, ×68614 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 51 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 51 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Sailing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $300 → $2.2k → $1.6k → $9.6k → $2.4k → $6.1k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Sailing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $5.1k (exactly $5,090)
Top 25% $210k (exactly $209,943)
Top 5% $43M (exactly $43,089,332)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 69
Announced 51
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Sailing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Sailing; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Open World, Action
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 80,894 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $5.1k, 1 in 4 over $200k, 1 in 20 over $43M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 6 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced 2026 · $48M Windrose 2026 · EA · $43M Skull and Bones 2024 · $4.2M Pixel Piracy 2014 · $2.6M Aloft 2025 · EA · $2.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
Skull and Bones older $29.99 4,650 65% 140k $4.2M (exactly $4,183,605) Ubisoft Singapore
Pixel Piracy older $14.99 5,713 65% 171k $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) Vitali Kirpu
Aloft · EA $24.99 3,057 82% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833) Astrolabe Interactive Inc.
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Breakwaters: Crystal Tides · EA older $19.99 866 63% 26k $519k (exactly $519,340) Soaring Pixels Games
Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates $19.99 638 70% 19k $383k (exactly $382,609) ReCon Team
Forgotten Seas $24.99 475 75% 14k $356k (exactly $356,108) Pangea Game Studios
Ys X: Proud Nordics $69.99 168 75% 5.0k $353k (exactly $352,750) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
Windward Horizon $19.99 401 79% 12k $240k (exactly $240,480) Tasharen Entertainment Inc.
DAVY x JONES · EA $17.99 389 82% 12k $210k (exactly $209,943) PARASIGHT
Captain Blood $24.99 266 77% 8.0k $199k (exactly $199,420) Seawolf Studio, General Arcade

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.