Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Roguelite?

Combat + Roguelite

Of 1,041 developers who shipped a Combat Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,765 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $350k, ×570 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 1,765 games are announced against 641 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 1,765 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,041
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $2.0k → $2.2k → $1.8k → $1.4k → $1.9k → $719 (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,041
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $7.0k (exactly $7,015)
Top 5% $358k (exactly $358,021)
Developers, 2 yr 1,041
Released games 1,911
Announced 1,765
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Roguelite; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Action Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 170,702 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $900, 1 in 4 over $7.0k, 1 in 20 over $350k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 455 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,765 games are announced against 641 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Warhammer: Vermintide 2 2018 · $82M Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor 2025 · $18M Deep Rock Galactic: Rogue Core 2026 · EA · $13M Shape of Dreams 2025 · $12M BALL x PIT 2025 · $11M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer: Vermintide 2 older $29.99 91,013 84% 2.7M $82M (exactly $81,884,396) Fatshark
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Deep Rock Galactic: Rogue Core · EA $29.99 14,049 60% 421k $13M (exactly $12,639,885) Ghost Ship Games
Shape of Dreams $24.99 15,769 89% 473k $12M (exactly $11,822,019) Lizard Smoothie
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
Homeworld 3 older $59.99 5,436 38% 163k $9.8M (exactly $9,783,169) Blackbird Interactive
Have a Nice Death older $24.99 9,729 85% 292k $7.3M (exactly $7,293,831) Magic Design Studios
Windblown · EA $24.99 9,066 88% 272k $6.8M (exactly $6,796,780) Motion Twin
Jump Space · EA $19.99 10,724 85% 322k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,183) Keepsake Games
Sephiria $17.99 11,582 94% 347k $6.3M (exactly $6,250,805) TEAM HORAY
Lost Castle 2 $17.99 10,851 78% 326k $5.9M (exactly $5,856,285) Hunter Studio
Vampire Crawlers: The Turbo Wildcard from Vampire Survivors $9.99 18,587 96% 558k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,524) poncle, Nosebleed Interactive
The King is Watching $14.99 9,006 88% 270k $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) Hypnohead

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.