Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Roguelike Deckbuilder?

Combat + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Of 38 developers who shipped a Combat Roguelike Deckbuilder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 64 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×7.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.5M, ×8870 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 64 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 64 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Roguelike Deckbuilder
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $16k → $345k → $4.1k → $17k → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Roguelike Deckbuilder: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,794)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $33,278)
Top 5% $5.6M (exactly $5,570,524)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 62
Announced 64
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Roguelike Deckbuilder
effort 3 / 10 · high · deckbuilding rules plus procedural runs

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Roguelike Deckbuilder; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Battler, Roguelike
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cartoon
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 40,984 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.2k, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $5.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.2k. 7 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 64 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Backpack Battles 2025 · $8.5M Vampire Crawlers: The Turbo Wildcard from Vampire Survivors 2026 · $5.6M Meme Mayhem 2024 · $2.5M Cobalt Core 2023 · $2.4M Half-Demon Shinobi 2024 · $409k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Backpack Battles $14.99 18,933 91% 568k $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170) PlayWithFurcifer
Vampire Crawlers: The Turbo Wildcard from Vampire Survivors $9.99 18,587 96% 558k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,524) poncle, Nosebleed Interactive
Meme Mayhem older $16.99 4,849 74% 145k $2.5M (exactly $2,471,535) Cr3 Studio
Cobalt Core older $19.99 4,067 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,438,980) Rocket Rat Games
Half-Demon Shinobi $10.99 1,242 89% 37k $409k (exactly $409,487) 樹懶叫工作室, 紳士吉娃, Maker製造機
Epic Auto Towers · EA $14.99 768 70% 23k $345k (exactly $345,370) Aleksandr Golovkin
Turnbound $14.99 446 78% 13k $201k (exactly $200,566) 1TK
The Royal Writ $14.99 425 80% 13k $191k (exactly $191,122) Save Sloth Studios
Forest Heroes $9.99 278 83% 8.3k $83k (exactly $83,317) Hoochoo Game Studios
Valefor $14.99 133 66% 4.0k $60k (exactly $59,810) Valefor Ltd
Aurora Defense · EA $12.99 98 60% 2.9k $38k (exactly $38,191) Moka Games
Command Deck · EA $14.99 74 98% 2.2k $33k (exactly $33,278) k-critical

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.