Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Rhythm

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Rhythm game?

Combat + Rhythm

Of 61 developers who shipped a Combat Rhythm game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 82 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $91k, ×145 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 82 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 82 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Rhythm
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 61
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $599 → $148 → $2.8k → $657 → $900 → $9.6k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Rhythm: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 61
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $716 (exactly $716)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,486)
Top 5% $91k (exactly $91,288)
Developers, 2 yr 61
Released games 163
Announced 82
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Rhythm; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 3,938 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $720, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $91k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 82 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Metal: Hellsinger 2022 · $13M Yakuza 5 Remastered 2021 · $3.7M PATAPON 1+2 REPLAY 2025 · $1.9M ROBOBEAT 2024 · $1.0M Waifu Fighter 2022 · $642k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Metal: Hellsinger older $29.99 13,989 96% 420k $13M (exactly $12,585,903) The Outsiders
Yakuza 5 Remastered older $19.99 6,199 88% 186k $3.7M (exactly $3,717,540) RGG Studio
PATAPON 1+2 REPLAY $29.99 2,091 83% 63k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,273) SAS CO.,LTD.
ROBOBEAT older $19.99 1,708 94% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,024,288) Simon Fredholm
Waifu Fighter older $7.99 2,677 86% 80k $642k (exactly $641,677) Happy Monster Studio
Archons $9.99 406 92% 12k $122k (exactly $121,678) BulletHell Studios
Metal: Hellsinger VR $29.99 107 68% 3.2k $96k (exactly $96,268) Lab42, The Outsiders
Rhythm Witch: Beat Death $5.99 508 94% 15k $91k (exactly $91,288) Dusklight CO., LTD.
PolyClassic: Wild older $13.99 213 76% 6.4k $89k (exactly $89,396) Quacky Games
No Socks RPG $9.99 286 92% 8.6k $86k (exactly $85,714) Spicyfuse
CYBERMATRIX $12.00 127 89% 3.8k $46k (exactly $45,720) Tim Murich
Fresh Tracks $24.99 53 94% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Buffalo Buffalo
Electro Bop Boxing League $14.99 84 79% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Developer Dob
Kill The Music $9.99 106 96% 3.2k $32k (exactly $31,768) Nikko Nikko
Ultimate Drummer $5.99 170 98% 5.1k $31k (exactly $30,549) Cool 3D World

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.