Do I ship it?

Games › Real-Time › Real-Time + Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Real-Time game?

Real-Time + Combat

Only 10 developers shipped a Combat Real-Time game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, MORSE, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $13k, ×21 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $52k, ×83 the market median. Revenue is up 135% on the market; 22 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 21.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 135% on the market, 22 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time + Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $116k → $122k → $18k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real-Time + Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $3.2k (exactly $3,236)
Median $13k (exactly $13,486)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,589)
Top 5% $52k (exactly $52,043)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 43
Announced 22
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 135% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real-Time, Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 79% positive over 510 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.3k, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $52k.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.3k. 22 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationStrong odds7 devs · median $2.0k · 6 announced
  2. + RogueliteFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  3. + BuildingPoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  4. + HistoricalPoor odds10 devs · median $52k · 15 announced
  5. + WarPoor odds14 devs · median $37k · 20 announced
  6. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $37k · 33 announced
  7. + WargamePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + PhysicsPoor odds7 devs · median $33k · 13 announced
  9. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $32k · 17 announced
  10. + Action RTSPoor odds12 devs · median $31k · 18 announced
  11. + StrategyPoor odds39 devs · median $28k · 75 announced
  12. + RTSPoor odds21 devs · median $22k · 40 announced

All 40 pairs on the Real-Time page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Homeworld 3 2024 · $9.8M Sudden Strike 4 2017 · $3.7M Nevergrind Online 2024 · $586k Necrosmith 2 2024 · $315k Empires and Tribes 2023 · $294k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Homeworld 3 older $59.99 5,436 38% 163k $9.8M (exactly $9,783,169) Blackbird Interactive
Sudden Strike 4 older $19.99 6,249 78% 187k $3.7M (exactly $3,747,525) Kite Games
Nevergrind Online older $15.99 1,221 86% 37k $586k (exactly $585,714) Neverworks Games
Necrosmith 2 older $7.99 1,315 77% 39k $315k (exactly $315,206) Alawar
Empires and Tribes older $24.99 392 66% 12k $294k (exactly $293,882) White Vertex Studios
Wings of Prey: Special Edition older $9.99 684 62% 21k $205k (exactly $204,995) Gaijin Entertainment Corporation
Drone Swarm older $16.99 279 62% 8.4k $142k (exactly $142,206) stillalive studios
TFC: The Fertile Crescent older $10.99 369 88% 11k $122k (exactly $121,659) Wield Interactive
Dust Fleet older $19.99 193 76% 5.8k $116k (exactly $115,742) Orbiting Disco
Attack at Dawn: North Africa older $29.99 101 87% 3.0k $91k (exactly $90,870) Panzer Division Games
MORSE $13.99 124 93% 3.7k $52k (exactly $52,043) ALJO Games
The Legend of Mala Tokmachka $4.99 246 71% 7.4k $37k (exactly $36,826) The Current Thing
Combat Directive : Napoleonic Wars $19.99 36 88% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,589) Fatice Games
TFC2: The Fertile Crescent 2 - Collapse of The Bronze Age · EA $17.99 33 81% 990 $18k (exactly $17,810) Wield Interactive
Dungeons & Dragons: Dragonshard $9.99 45 80% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) Liquid Entertainment
America Against Ants $14.99 9 100% 270 $4.0k (exactly $4,047) Aartform Games, Mark Brendan
Tactics of World War I $8.99 12 58% 360 $3.2k (exactly $3,236) Headless Horseman Games
Pirates of Gravitae $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Innerverse Games
Yagazem Elements $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) CirilXD
MMM Weird Adventure $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Rayos Fotonicos

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.