Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Puzzle game?

Combat + Puzzle

Of 261 developers who shipped a Combat Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 534 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $350k, ×568 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 534 games are announced against 140 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 534 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 261
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $1.3k → $898 → $2.5k → $898 → $1.2k → $599 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 261
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $838 (exactly $838)
Top 25% $6.6k (exactly $6,597)
Top 5% $357k (exactly $356,822)
Developers, 2 yr 261
Released games 738
Announced 534
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 25,331 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $840, 1 in 4 over $6.5k, 1 in 20 over $350k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 156 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 534 games are announced against 140 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hogwarts Legacy older $59.99 274,801 89% 8.2M $495M (exactly $494,559,360) Avalanche Software
UNCHARTED™: Legacy of Thieves Collection older $49.99 29,422 90% 883k $44M (exactly $44,124,173) Naughty Dog LLC, Iron Galaxy Studios
BONELAB older $39.99 18,670 82% 560k $22M (exactly $22,398,399) Stress Level Zero
Trine 4: The Nightmare Prince older $29.99 11,712 88% 351k $11M (exactly $10,537,286) Frozenbyte
Bendy and the Dark Revival older $19.99 14,497 92% 435k $8.7M (exactly $8,693,851) Joey Drew Studios
Hell is Us $49.99 4,279 83% 128k $6.4M (exactly $6,417,216) Rogue Factor
SUPERHOT VR older $24.99 7,978 82% 239k $6.0M (exactly $5,981,107) SUPERHOT Team
Sherlock Holmes Chapter One older $44.99 4,189 77% 126k $5.7M (exactly $5,653,893) Frogwares
Immortals Fenyx Rising older $39.99 4,522 73% 136k $5.4M (exactly $5,425,043) Ubisoft
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio
Enigma of Fear $29.99 3,045 95% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,739,586) Dumativa, Cellbit
Legacy of Kain™ Soul Reaver 1&2 Remastered $29.99 3,042 90% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,736,887) Aspyr, Crystal Dynamics
OFF $14.99 3,093 95% 93k $1.4M (exactly $1,390,922) Mortis Ghost, Fangamer
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Metal Garden $5.99 4,375 96% 131k $786k (exactly $786,188) Tinerasoft
Pronoun Palace $19.84 1,249 99% 37k $743k (exactly $743,405) Cadence Petersen, Hazel Fackler
Titanium Court $14.99 1,094 94% 33k $492k (exactly $491,972) AP Thomson
Legacy of Kain: Defiance Remastered $24.99 641 96% 19k $481k (exactly $480,558) Crystal Dynamics, PlayEveryWare

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.