Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Perma Death game?

Combat + Perma Death

Of 229 developers who shipped a Combat Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 422 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $36k, ×58 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 422 games are announced against 134 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 422 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 229
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.7k → $1.6k → $1.2k → $390 → $718 → $899 → $450 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 229
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $538 (exactly $538)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Top 5% $37k (exactly $36,632)
Developers, 2 yr 229
Released games 573
Announced 422
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 5,644 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $540, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $36k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 108 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 422 games are announced against 134 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Marauders · EA older $29.99 13,505 68% 405k $12M (exactly $12,150,448) Small Impact Games
Day of Dragons · EA older $19.99 6,278 68% 188k $3.8M (exactly $3,764,917) Beawesome Games
Blackthorn Arena older $24.99 3,477 69% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,606,707) PersonaeGame Studio
Atomicrops older $14.99 5,134 93% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,760) Bird Bath Games
Vagante older $14.99 4,118 90% 124k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,865) Nuke Nine
轮回修仙路 older $16.99 2,945 82% 88k $1.5M (exactly $1,501,066) 烟水寒工作室
Soulash 2 · EA older $18.99 2,382 85% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,357,025) Artur Smiarowski
Fury Unleashed older $19.99 2,010 86% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,205,397) Awesome Games Studio
ELDERBORN older $14.99 2,229 87% 67k $1.0M (exactly $1,002,381) Hyperstrange
Cluckmech Oasis older $9.99 3,077 87% 92k $922k (exactly $922,177) BlackLight
Pronoun Palace $19.84 1,249 99% 37k $743k (exactly $743,405) Cadence Petersen, Hazel Fackler
CRUEL $9.99 1,814 95% 54k $544k (exactly $543,656) James Dornan
Netherworld Covenant $19.99 597 78% 18k $358k (exactly $358,021) MadGoat Game Studio
Soulslinger: Envoy of Death $19.99 472 63% 14k $283k (exactly $283,058) Elder Games
Rogue Blight $12.99 318 91% 9.5k $124k (exactly $123,925) CodeRadGames
Mage and Monsters II $8.99 372 82% 11k $100k (exactly $100,328) Lasse Zacho Malver
Dark PGT $4.99 404 83% 12k $60k (exactly $60,479) ZERO5GAMES
Sculplings $10.99 179 99% 5.4k $59k (exactly $59,016) Conor Garity, Liam Kerrigan
Cryptical Path $14.99 130 86% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,461) Old Skull Games
Slimekeep $14.99 109 87% 3.3k $49k (exactly $49,017) BenBonk

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.