Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Outbreak Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Outbreak Sim?

Combat + Outbreak Sim

Only 13 developers shipped a Combat Outbreak Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Colonies of The Remnant, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $120, ×0.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 19 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper, while revenue is up 840% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 840% on the market, 19 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Outbreak Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $0 → $629
Outcomes for Combat + Outbreak Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $120 (exactly $120)
Top 25% $1.1k (exactly $1,078)
Top 5% $30k (exactly $29,799)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 25
Announced 19
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 840% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Outbreak Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Outbreak Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Shooter
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 8 games average 34% positive over 119 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $120, 1 in 4 over $1.0k, 1 in 20 over $29k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Colonies of The Remnant · EA $13.99 71 7% 2.1k $30k (exactly $29,799) Cat Soul Studios
Zombies Attack $4.99 26 100% 780 $3.9k (exactly $3,892) Liao Kai, LKK GAME
Resident Fear : Redistribution older $2.99 24 20% 720 $2.2k (exactly $2,153) Gamesoft Studios
Evil World HOPSCA $12.99 4 0% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) XU RENYU
Bad Times at the Silver Lake older $4.99 8 12% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Philip Efimov
2 Hours Later $5.99 6 16% 180 $1.1k (exactly $1,078) SevenGHON
Beastmaster older $5.99 6 16% 180 $1.1k (exactly $1,078) 鱼鱼游戏
Dead Inside · EA older $4.99 7 42% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Dogukan Demir
Devil's Island older $1.99 16 37% 480 $955 (exactly $955) Never Say Never
Operation Save the Girl: Code X older $1.99 13 38% 390 $776 (exactly $776) 2024-NGame
Creature Menace: The Ultimate Nightmare $6.99 3 100% 90 $629 (exactly $629) Blood Stain Games
PROMIZED LAND: Outer Town 2025 $2.99 5 60% 150 $449 (exactly $449) PotaZOM, KRAKATOA STUDIOS
Gunfire Girl: Zombie Hunt $3.99 1 0% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Dinosaur workshop
Autism, ADHD and Syphilis $0.99 3 100% 90 $89 (exactly $89) ProgenitorWorks
People and Zombies $7.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) HUSITANG
Z Mission Breakout $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Gaemster

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.