Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Combat game?

Combat + Mystery

Of 242 developers who shipped a Mystery Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 603 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×791 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 603 games are announced against 113 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 603 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 242
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $1.4k → $896 → $299 → $479 → $838 → $418 (still earning) → $213 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 242
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,198)
Top 5% $497k (exactly $496,552)
Developers, 2 yr 242
Released games 596
Announced 603
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 27,673 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $490k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 151 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 603 games are announced against 113 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Ghostwire: Tokyo 2022 · $23M Kena: Bridge of Spirits 2022 · $20M Sherlock Holmes Chapter One 2021 · $5.7M Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy 2026 · $5.3M Len's Island 2025 · $4.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ghostwire: Tokyo older $59.99 12,954 83% 389k $23M (exactly $23,313,314) Tango Gameworks
Kena: Bridge of Spirits older $39.99 16,701 91% 501k $20M (exactly $20,036,190) Ember Lab
Sherlock Holmes Chapter One older $44.99 4,189 77% 126k $5.7M (exactly $5,653,893) Frogwares
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio
Len's Island $24.99 5,935 82% 178k $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) Flow Studio
Alone in the Dark older $39.99 3,325 77% 100k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,002) Pieces Interactive
Atlas Fallen: Reign Of Sand older $39.99 2,773 74% 83k $3.3M (exactly $3,326,768) Deck13
SOUTH PARK: SNOW DAY! older $29.99 3,111 48% 93k $2.8M (exactly $2,798,967) Question
Eternights older $29.99 3,046 85% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,740,486) Studio Sai
Enigma of Fear $29.99 3,045 95% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,739,586) Dumativa, Cellbit
MIO: Memories in Orbit $19.99 4,300 83% 129k $2.6M (exactly $2,578,710) Douze Dixièmes
The Sinking City 2 $49.99 1,410 83% 42k $2.1M (exactly $2,114,577) Frogwares
Echoes of the End: Enhanced Edition $39.99 1,484 78% 45k $1.8M (exactly $1,780,355) Myrkur Games
Slitterhead $49.99 1,145 78% 34k $1.7M (exactly $1,717,156) Bokeh Game Studio lnc.
RAIDOU Remastered: The Mystery of the Soulless Army $49.99 1,045 93% 31k $1.6M (exactly $1,567,186) ATLUS
Wicked Seed $19.99 1,376 94% 41k $825k (exactly $825,187) Dead Right Games
Metal Garden $5.99 4,375 96% 131k $786k (exactly $786,188) Tinerasoft

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.