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Should I ship a Combat Metroidvania?
Combat + Metroidvania
Of 147 developers who shipped a Combat Metroidvania in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 562 more are announced, ×6.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×6.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×680 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 562 games are announced against 87 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $599 (exactly $599) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.2k (exactly $4,196) |
| Top 25% | $44k (exactly $44,036) |
| Top 5% | $427k (exactly $427,215) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 147 |
| Released games | 410 |
| Announced | 562 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Combat
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Metroidvania
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Combat, Metroidvania; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 24,409 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 74 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 562 games are announced against 87 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds
- + 4XFair
- + TypingFair
- + VampiresFair
- + SnowFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + Match 3Long shot
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + Political SimPoor odds
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + LGBTQ+Poor odds
Comparable games
Blasphemous 2 2023 · $15M 
Death's Door 2021 · $12M 
Tails of Iron 2021 · $9.8M 
Have a Nice Death 2023 · $7.3M 
Windblown 2024 · EA · $6.8M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Blasphemous 2 | older | $29.99 | 16,808 91% | 504k | $15M (exactly $15,122,158) | The Game Kitchen |
| | Death's Door | older | $19.99 | 19,330 93% | 580k | $12M (exactly $11,592,201) | Acid Nerve |
| | Tails of Iron | older | $24.99 | 13,116 87% | 393k | $9.8M (exactly $9,833,065) | Odd Bug Studio |
| | Have a Nice Death | older | $24.99 | 9,729 85% | 292k | $7.3M (exactly $7,293,831) | Magic Design Studios |
| | Windblown | · EA | $24.99 | 9,066 88% | 272k | $6.8M (exactly $6,796,780) | Motion Twin |
 | Prince of Persia The Lost Crown | older | $29.99 | 6,754 84% | 203k | $6.1M (exactly $6,076,574) | Ubisoft Montpellier |
 | Lunacid | older | $13.99 | 10,371 90% | 311k | $4.4M (exactly $4,352,709) | KIRA LLC |
 | Mandragora: Whispers of the Witch Tree | $39.99 | 3,026 75% | 91k | $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) | Primal Game Studio | |
 | GRIME | older | $24.99 | 4,638 85% | 139k | $3.5M (exactly $3,477,109) | Clover Bite |
 | TEVI | older | $29.99 | 3,580 88% | 107k | $3.2M (exactly $3,220,926) | CreSpirit, GemaYue, Ein Lee |
 | MIO: Memories in Orbit | $19.99 | 4,300 83% | 129k | $2.6M (exactly $2,578,710) | Douze Dixièmes | |
 | GRIME II | $27.99 | 1,892 86% | 57k | $1.6M (exactly $1,588,712) | Clover Bite | |
 | Tails of Iron 2: Whiskers of Winter | $24.99 | 1,851 79% | 56k | $1.4M (exactly $1,387,695) | Odd Bug Studio | |
 | The Devil Within: Satgat | $24.99 | 795 78% | 24k | $596k (exactly $596,012) | Newcore Games | |
 | Voidwrought | $19.99 | 936 77% | 28k | $561k (exactly $561,319) | Powersnake | |
 | Guns of Fury | $14.99 | 950 88% | 29k | $427k (exactly $427,215) | Gelato Games Ltd | |
 | Solateria | $19.99 | 710 83% | 21k | $426k (exactly $425,787) | Studio Doodal | |
 | Succubus Successor: Delilah's Juicy Journey | $14.99 | 883 90% | 26k | $397k (exactly $397,085) | Ramen Cat Studio, 樹画祭 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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