Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Management game?

Combat + Management

Of 206 developers who shipped a Combat Management game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 510 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $700k, ×1121 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 510 games are announced against 138 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 510 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 206
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $1.8k → $1.2k → $1.8k → $2.5k → $6.7k → $2.5k (still earning) → $2.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 206
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,880)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $19,760)
Top 5% $704k (exactly $703,683)
Developers, 2 yr 206
Released games 421
Announced 510
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Management; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Resource Management
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 33,201 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $700k.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 8 in 10 of the 77 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 510 games are announced against 138 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MechWarrior 5: Mercenaries older $29.99 13,347 84% 400k $12M (exactly $12,008,296) Piranha Games Inc.
Stranded: Alien Dawn older $34.99 9,715 84% 291k $10M (exactly $10,197,836) Haemimont Games
Homeworld 3 older $59.99 5,436 38% 163k $9.8M (exactly $9,783,169) Blackbird Interactive
Quarantine Zone: The Last Check $19.99 11,827 81% 355k $7.1M (exactly $7,092,652) Brigada Games
Songs of Syx · EA older $24.99 8,842 94% 265k $6.6M (exactly $6,628,847) Gamatron AB
Made in Abyss: Binary Star Falling into Darkness older $59.99 2,650 79% 80k $4.8M (exactly $4,769,205) Chime Corporation
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown $34.99 4,162 79% 125k $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) Gamexcite
Master of Command $29.99 3,840 92% 115k $3.5M (exactly $3,454,848) Armchair Interactive
Carrier Command 2 older $29.99 3,444 82% 103k $3.1M (exactly $3,098,567) Geometa
Kynseed older $24.99 3,513 83% 105k $2.6M (exactly $2,633,696) PixelCount Studios
Ascension · EA $19.99 2,437 60% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) Element Game 微元游戏
Sir, We Have an Orc Problem $9.99 4,123 86% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) Mumpitz Games
Tabletop Tavern $19.99 2,049 89% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,785) TJ
The Last Starship $19.99 1,623 75% 49k $973k (exactly $973,313) Introversion Software
Metal Slug Tactics $24.99 1,152 76% 35k $864k (exactly $863,654) Leikir Studio
The Scouring · EA $24.99 1,136 88% 34k $852k (exactly $851,659) Orc Group
Airborne Empire $29.99 852 86% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) The Wandering Band LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.