Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Life Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Life Sim?

Combat + Life Sim

Of 48 developers who shipped a Combat Life Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 122 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $350k, ×565 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 122 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 122 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Life Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $29k → $43k → $3.6k → $4.3k → $3.6k → $1.1k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Life Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,139)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,203)
Top 5% $355k (exactly $354,608)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 115
Announced 122
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Life Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Open World, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Dark Humor
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 14,345 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $350k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 122 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Quarantine Zone: The Last Check $19.99 11,827 81% 355k $7.1M (exactly $7,092,652) Brigada Games
Kynseed older $24.99 3,513 83% 105k $2.6M (exactly $2,633,696) PixelCount Studios
Punch Club 2: Fast Forward older $19.99 3,808 81% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,283,658) Lazy Bear Games
Chef RPG · EA older $19.99 2,593 87% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,555,022) World 2 Studio
Skoof Simulator older $29.99 935 83% 28k $841k (exactly $841,220) PropilGames
Quadrober Simulator $29.99 684 79% 21k $615k (exactly $615,395) PropilGames
沉默的蟋蟀 older $14.99 1,130 88% 34k $508k (exactly $508,161) 蓬莱飞鱼工作室
Hard Time III older $14.99 929 85% 28k $418k (exactly $417,771) MDickie
Hentai Femdom Sim: Femdom University older $34.99 348 79% 10k $365k (exactly $365,296) SaliaCoel
It's Only Money $24.99 473 78% 14k $355k (exactly $354,608) Usual Suspects Studios
MMA Life Simulator $16.99 435 80% 13k $222k (exactly $221,719) BNS7
Weed Shop 4: Highland · EA $19.99 205 52% 6.2k $123k (exactly $122,938) Weed Games
Nature & Life - Drunk On Nectar $14.99 263 87% 7.9k $118k (exactly $118,271) Venugopalan Sreedharan
DRUDGE · EA $12.99 139 94% 4.2k $54k (exactly $54,168) Writegg
Space Chef $14.99 105 73% 3.2k $47k (exactly $47,218) Blue Goo Games
Primeval $14.99 75 60% 2.3k $34k (exactly $33,728) Exhibyte
Assenizator $4.99 139 93% 4.2k $21k (exactly $20,808) alexkab

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.