Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Incremental game?

Combat + Incremental

Of 163 developers who shipped a Combat Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 287 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×293 the market median. Revenue is up 205% on the market; 287 games are announced against 129 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 205% on the market, 287 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 163
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.8k → $269 → $2.8k → $538 → $987 → $2.2k → $638 (still earning) → $1.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 163
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,256)
Top 25% $9.8k (exactly $9,815)
Top 5% $184k (exactly $183,938)
Developers, 2 yr 163
Released games 307
Announced 287
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 205% on the market, supply 270% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Incremental; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Idler, Strategy, RPG
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $8.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 17,020 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $9.8k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 47 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 287 games are announced against 129 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sir, We Have an Orc Problem 2026 · $1.2M Astro Prospector 2025 · $482k Outhold 2025 · $381k Path of Idle: Old Gods Rising 2026 · $348k Master Healer Kale with useless party 2026 · $281k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sir, We Have an Orc Problem $9.99 4,123 86% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) Mumpitz Games
Astro Prospector $4.99 3,223 91% 97k $482k (exactly $482,483) Incrementalist
Outhold $6.99 1,818 86% 55k $381k (exactly $381,235) Tellus Games
Path of Idle: Old Gods Rising $9.99 1,160 77% 35k $348k (exactly $347,652) Small Mill, Small Mill
Master Healer Kale with useless party $4.99 1,879 95% 56k $281k (exactly $281,286) Evrac Studio
Talented $5.99 1,475 91% 44k $265k (exactly $265,058) TurtleFox Games
Nomad Idle $9.99 852 64% 26k $255k (exactly $255,344) The Fox Knocks
Maktala: Slime Lootfest $4.99 1,345 79% 40k $201k (exactly $201,346) Samharia Studios
Age of Clicks · EA $12.99 472 65% 14k $184k (exactly $183,938) David Ius
Bloobs Adventure Idle $7.99 673 88% 20k $161k (exactly $161,318) Bloobs_Dev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.