Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Idler?

Combat + Idler

Of 158 developers who shipped a Combat Idler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 265 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×369 the market median. Revenue is up 95% on the market; 265 games are announced against 117 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 95% on the market, 265 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 158
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.8k → $359 → $2.8k → $897 → $2.5k → $4.8k → $1.4k (still earning) → $1.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 158
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,159)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,997)
Top 5% $232k (exactly $231,672)
Developers, 2 yr 158
Released games 333
Announced 265
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply 180% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Idler; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Incremental, Strategy, RPG
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 38,257 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 53 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 265 games are announced against 117 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

BALL x PIT 2025 · $11M Melvor Idle 2021 · $4.4M Sir, We Have an Orc Problem 2026 · $1.2M Outhold 2025 · $381k Path of Idle: Old Gods Rising 2026 · $348k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
Melvor Idle older $9.99 14,630 90% 439k $4.4M (exactly $4,384,611) Games by Malcs
Sir, We Have an Orc Problem $9.99 4,123 86% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) Mumpitz Games
Outhold $6.99 1,818 86% 55k $381k (exactly $381,235) Tellus Games
Path of Idle: Old Gods Rising $9.99 1,160 77% 35k $348k (exactly $347,652) Small Mill, Small Mill
Dark Hunting Ground $12.99 771 92% 23k $300k (exactly $300,459) BingX
Master Healer Kale with useless party $4.99 1,879 95% 56k $281k (exactly $281,286) Evrac Studio
Nomad Idle $9.99 852 64% 26k $255k (exactly $255,344) The Fox Knocks
Flash Doll $8.99 859 80% 26k $232k (exactly $231,672) Game Star
Fantasy Idle Dungeon $9.99 736 70% 22k $221k (exactly $220,579) Leaves Games
Maktala: Slime Lootfest $4.99 1,345 79% 40k $201k (exactly $201,346) Samharia Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.