Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Hex Grid

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Hex Grid game?

Combat + Hex Grid

Of 36 developers who shipped a Combat Hex Grid game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 61 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×469 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 61 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 61 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Hex Grid
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $629 → $2.5k → $1.9k → $3.2k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Hex Grid: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,193)
Top 5% $294k (exactly $294,235)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 80
Announced 61
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Hex Grid; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.95 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.95 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 62% positive over 3,027 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 61 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Ascension 2025 · EA · $1.5M The Troop 2023 · $979k Second Front 2023 · $643k Disciples: Domination 2026 · $294k Möbius Front '83 2020 · $197k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ascension · EA $19.99 2,437 60% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) Element Game 微元游戏
The Troop older $39.99 816 83% 24k $979k (exactly $978,955) Giant Flame
Second Front older $34.99 613 78% 18k $643k (exactly $643,466) Hexdraw
Disciples: Domination $44.99 218 65% 6.5k $294k (exactly $294,235) Artefacts Studio
Möbius Front '83 older $19.99 328 74% 9.8k $197k (exactly $196,702) Zachtronics
Valor & Victory older $19.99 163 69% 4.9k $98k (exactly $97,751) Yobowargames
Attack at Dawn: North Africa older $29.99 101 87% 3.0k $91k (exactly $90,870) Panzer Division Games
Lock 'n Load Tactical Digital: Core Game · EA older $4.99 566 82% 17k $85k (exactly $84,730) Lock 'n Load Publishing
Sea Horizon older $14.99 145 75% 4.4k $65k (exactly $65,206) 45 Studio
Space Imperia 4X $22.99 70 92% 2.1k $48k (exactly $48,279) Breich Games
Eclipse - 2nd Dawn for the Galaxy $12.99 95 57% 2.9k $37k (exactly $37,022) BrettspielWelt GmbH
Astro Protocol $11.99 66 93% 2.0k $24k (exactly $23,740) Null Vector Studios
Sword & Siege Crusades: Book I $39.95 19 100% 570 $23k (exactly $22,772) Wargame Design Studio
Combat Directive : Napoleonic Wars $19.99 36 88% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,589) Fatice Games
1953: NATO vs Warsaw Pact $5.99 70 41% 2.1k $13k (exactly $12,579) Wastelands Interactive
American Revolutionary War $39.95 9 100% 270 $11k (exactly $10,786) Wargame Design Studio
Sword & Siege Age of Longbow: Volume I $39.95 7 100% 210 $8.4k (exactly $8,390) Wargame Design Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.