Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Heist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Heist Combat game?

Combat + Heist

Only 16 developers shipped a Heist Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1691 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 47 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 47 announced, ×5.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Heist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.6k → $6.0k → $271k → $2.4k → $119 → $6.7k → $268k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Heist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $480 (exactly $480)
Top 25% $204k (exactly $203,898)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,061,742)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 57
Announced 47
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Heist
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Combat
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 3,842 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $480, 1 in 4 over $200k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

PAYDAY 3 2023 · $44M Crime Boss: Rockay City 2024 · $5.1M The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time 2026 · $1.1M Turnip Boy Robs a Bank 2024 · $850k It's Only Money 2024 · $355k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
PAYDAY 3 older $29.99 49,305 45% 1.5M $44M (exactly $44,359,708) Starbreeze Studios
Crime Boss: Rockay City older $19.99 8,553 68% 257k $5.1M (exactly $5,129,234) INGAME STUDIOS
The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time $14.99 2,361 90% 71k $1.1M (exactly $1,061,742) That Fish, That Other Fish
Turnip Boy Robs a Bank older $14.99 1,890 95% 57k $850k (exactly $849,933) Snoozy Kazoo
It's Only Money $24.99 473 78% 14k $355k (exactly $354,608) Usual Suspects Studios
Raw Metal older $19.99 452 88% 14k $271k (exactly $271,064) Team Crucible
Jackal $14.99 596 88% 18k $268k (exactly $268,021) Transhuman Design
Thief VR: Legacy of Shadow $19.99 340 75% 10k $204k (exactly $203,898) Maze Theory
Extinction older $29.99 132 39% 4.0k $119k (exactly $118,760) Iron Galaxy Studios
Big Rumble Boxing: Creed Champions older $39.99 92 65% 2.8k $110k (exactly $110,372) Survios
Kitchen Wars $4.99 45 80% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) Silent Owl
Miami Horizon 2077 $4.90 16 75% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,352) CJ
Heist Haven · EA $12.99 4 0% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) Somehow Games
Heist $15.99 1 0% 30 $480 (exactly $480) anl studios
MIDNIGHT GETAWAY $7.99 2 100% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Final Offer
Wild Willy West $3.99 4 100% 120 $479 (exactly $479) Team Sloop

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.