Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Grid-Based Movement

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Grid-Based Movement game?

Combat + Grid-Based Movement

Of 93 developers who shipped a Combat Grid-Based Movement game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 195 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $55k, ×88 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 195 games are announced against 57 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 195 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Grid-Based Movement
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 93
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $1.3k → $1.3k → $449 → $1.8k → $1.2k → $628 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Grid-Based Movement: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 93
Bottom 30% $208 (exactly $208)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $3.5k (exactly $3,506)
Top 5% $55k (exactly $55,048)
Developers, 2 yr 93
Released games 236
Announced 195
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Grid-Based Movement
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Grid-Based Movement; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 20,546 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $900, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $55k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 195 games are announced against 57 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Vampire Crawlers: The Turbo Wildcard from Vampire Survivors $9.99 18,587 96% 558k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,524) poncle, Nosebleed Interactive
Hard West 2 older $29.99 2,717 80% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,444,485) Ice Code Games
Cobalt Core older $19.99 4,067 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,438,980) Rocket Rat Games
Card-en-Ciel $24.99 856 90% 26k $642k (exactly $641,743) INTI CREATES CO., LTD.
Warside $24.99 547 68% 16k $410k (exactly $410,086) LAVABIRD
Field of Glory II: Medieval older $29.99 424 86% 13k $381k (exactly $381,473) Byzantine Games
The Fall of the Dungeon Guardians - Enhanced Edition older $19.99 625 83% 19k $375k (exactly $374,812) Mana Games
The Warlock of Firetop Mountain older $19.99 352 76% 11k $211k (exactly $211,094) Tin Man Games
Tiny Tactics older $9.99 661 82% 20k $198k (exactly $198,102) Tiny Forge Gaming
Möbius Front '83 older $19.99 328 74% 9.8k $197k (exactly $196,702) Zachtronics
Guards II: Chaos in Hell $15.99 125 96% 3.8k $60k (exactly $59,962) Battlecruiser Games
Dverghold · EA $16.99 108 95% 3.2k $55k (exactly $55,048) Team Sorgarn
RED DAWN · EA $12.99 84 91% 2.5k $33k (exactly $32,735) Dynamic Duo Games
Legends of Amberland III: The Crimson Tower $19.99 53 98% 1.6k $32k (exactly $31,784) Silver Lemur Games
Astro Protocol $11.99 66 93% 2.0k $24k (exactly $23,740) Null Vector Studios
Maze Keeper $8.99 84 47% 2.5k $23k (exactly $22,655) Spaceward Games
Combat Directive : Napoleonic Wars $19.99 36 88% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,589) Fatice Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.