Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Combat game?

Combat + Futuristic

Of 481 developers who shipped a Futuristic Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,054 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $390, ×0.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 1,054 games are announced against 267 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper, while revenue is down 10% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 1,054 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 481
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $450 → $748 → $629 → $1.6k → $359 → $899 → $358 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 481
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $390 (exactly $390)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Top 5% $317k (exactly $316,642)
Developers, 2 yr 481
Released games 1,459
Announced 1,054
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 419,256 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $390, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 273 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,054 games are announced against 267 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Titanfall® 2 older $29.99 255,050 95% 7.7M $229M (exactly $229,468,485) Respawn Entertainment
ARMORED CORE™ VI FIRES OF RUBICON™ older $59.99 66,987 91% 2.0M $121M (exactly $120,556,504) FromSoftware, Inc.
Stellar Blade™ $59.99 61,289 93% 1.8M $110M (exactly $110,301,813) SHIFT UP Corporation
Ghostrunner older $29.99 46,818 91% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,122,155) One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Iro… (One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Ironworks™, All in! Games)
SCARLET NEXUS older $59.99 13,749 81% 412k $25M (exactly $24,744,075) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
Killing Floor 3 $39.99 16,493 46% 495k $20M (exactly $19,786,652) Tripwire Interactive
VTOL VR older $29.99 19,885 98% 597k $18M (exactly $17,890,534) Boundless Dynamics, LLC
Dead Space™ 2 older $19.99 25,897 94% 777k $16M (exactly $15,530,431) Visceral Games
Cronos: The New Dawn $59.99 7,753 87% 233k $14M (exactly $13,953,074) Bloober Team
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered $49.99 6,860 84% 206k $10M (exactly $10,287,942) Guerrilla Games, Nixxes Software
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown $34.99 4,162 79% 125k $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) Gamexcite
Daemon X Machina: Titanic Scion $69.99 1,838 63% 55k $3.9M (exactly $3,859,249) Marvelous Inc.
MindsEye $34.99 2,855 48% 86k $3.0M (exactly $2,996,894) Build A Rocket Boy
M.A.S.S. Builder $24.99 3,729 85% 112k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,631) Vermillion Digital

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.