Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + FMV

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat FMV?

Combat + FMV

Only 11 developers shipped a Combat FMV in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ratten Reich, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×588 the market median. Revenue is up 3045% on the market; 22 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 3045% on the market, 22 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + FMV
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $6.3k → $2.1k → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + FMV: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,698)
Top 25% $52k (exactly $51,716)
Top 5% $369k (exactly $369,415)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 41
Announced 22
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3045% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
FMV
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, FMV
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 63% positive over 1,300 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $51k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 22 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ratten Reich $19.99 616 40% 18k $369k (exactly $369,415) METALLADLERSTUDIO
Don't Stop, Girlypop! $19.99 518 83% 16k $311k (exactly $310,645) Funny Fintan Softworks
Squad 51 vs. the Flying Saucers older $19.99 199 91% 6.0k $119k (exactly $119,340) Loomiarts, Fehorama Filmes
Hand of Doom older $9.99 308 87% 9.2k $92k (exactly $92,308) Torple Dook
Star Trek™: Starfleet Academy older $19.99 129 81% 3.9k $77k (exactly $77,361) Interplay Entertainment Corp.
Touhou Gensokyo Odyssey older $6.99 357 94% 11k $75k (exactly $74,863) Kronington
FUTA FIGHT & FUCK 🥊 $14.99 115 92% 3.5k $52k (exactly $51,716) BanzaiProject
Nandemoya of Flower Street older $8.99 61 72% 1.8k $16k (exactly $16,452) 可可乳工作室
Hardwar older $9.99 52 94% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,584) Jordan Freeman Group, The Software Refi… (Jordan Freeman Group, The Software Refinery)
返杀 Back Fire older $11.99 40 57% 1.2k $14k (exactly $14,388) 熬夜有光
Obey the Insect God $19.99 23 100% 690 $14k (exactly $13,793) Chunkle Freaky's Movies Games, Charles… (Chunkle Freaky's Movies Games, Charles Davis)
Earnest Evans Collection $49.99 7 42% 210 $10k (exactly $10,498) Mighty Rabbit Studios, Headless Chicken… (Mighty Rabbit Studios, Headless Chicken Games)
PrizeFighter - Heavyweight Edition $14.99 6 100% 180 $2.7k (exactly $2,698) Screaming Villains
One Rotten Oath $6.99 10 100% 300 $2.1k (exactly $2,097) Piotr Bunkowski
Bodycam:Adrenaline $9.99 2 0% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Rocket Game
Mina · EA $5.95 3 0% 90 $536 (exactly $536) Anopia Games
Our War: Firepower Suppression $16.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Chengdu Old Man

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.