Do I ship it?

Games › Fighting › Fighting + Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Fighting game?

Fighting + Combat

Of 115 developers who shipped a Combat Fighting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 215 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×1.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $6.2M, ×4192 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 215 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 215 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 115
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $1.1k → $14k → $19k → $3.0k → $4.5k → $2.7k (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fighting + Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 115
Bottom 30% $598 (exactly $598)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 25% $50k (exactly $50,375)
Top 5% $6.3M (exactly $6,279,906)
Developers, 2 yr 115
Released games 442
Announced 215
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting, Combat; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, PvP, 3D Fighter
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 125,274 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $6.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 62 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 215 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO 2024 · $76M GUILTY GEAR -STRIVE- 2021 · $57M Ghostrunner 2020 · $42M Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Hinokami Chronicles 2021 · $30M Undisputed 2024 · $29M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO $49.99 50,395 86% 1.5M $76M (exactly $75,577,382) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
GUILTY GEAR -STRIVE- older $39.99 47,650 88% 1.4M $57M (exactly $57,165,705) Arc System Works
Ghostrunner older $29.99 46,818 91% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,122,155) One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Iro… (One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Ironworks™, All in! Games)
Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Hinokami Chronicles older $59.99 16,545 87% 496k $30M (exactly $29,776,036) CyberConnect2
Undisputed $49.99 19,190 60% 576k $29M (exactly $28,779,243) Steel City Interactive
SCARLET NEXUS older $59.99 13,749 81% 412k $25M (exactly $24,744,075) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
Half Sword · EA $24.99 28,656 71% 860k $21M (exactly $21,483,403) Half Sword Games
Ghostrunner 2 older $39.99 7,981 80% 239k $9.6M (exactly $9,574,806) One More Level
MARVEL Tōkon: Fighting Souls $59.99 4,934 48% 148k $8.9M (exactly $8,879,720) ARC SYSTEM WORKS CO., LTD
BLEACH Rebirth of Souls $59.99 4,831 68% 145k $8.7M (exactly $8,694,351) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
Rivals of Aether II $29.99 6,980 78% 209k $6.3M (exactly $6,279,906) Aether Studios
Invincible VS $49.99 3,031 76% 91k $4.5M (exactly $4,545,591) Quarter Up
Avatar Legends: The Fighting Game $29.99 3,298 85% 99k $3.0M (exactly $2,967,211) Gameplay Group International
Samson $24.99 2,911 54% 87k $2.2M (exactly $2,182,377) Liquid Swords
Clone Drone in the Hyperdome $19.99 1,048 91% 31k $628k (exactly $628,486) Doborog Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.