Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon RPG?

RPG + Collectathon

Of 160 developers who shipped a Collectathon RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 298 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $710k, ×1146 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 298 games are announced against 89 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 298 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 160
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.7k → $1.8k → $3.6k → $3.0k → $1.9k → $3.4k → $838 (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 160
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,290)
Top 5% $720k (exactly $719,960)
Developers, 2 yr 160
Released games 489
Announced 298
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Collectathon; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Crafting
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Pixel Graphics, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 51,644 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $710k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 97 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 298 games are announced against 89 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Temtem 2022 · $42M Digimon Story Time Stranger 2025 · $33M INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road 2025 · $23M Travellers Rest 2020 · EA · $8.9M Cassette Beasts 2023 · $5.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Temtem older $44.99 31,263 82% 938k $42M (exactly $42,195,671) Crema
Digimon Story Time Stranger $69.99 15,845 89% 475k $33M (exactly $33,269,746) Media.Vision Inc.
INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road $69.99 11,180 88% 335k $23M (exactly $23,474,646) LEVEL5 Inc.
Travellers Rest · EA older $17.99 16,538 87% 496k $8.9M (exactly $8,925,559) Isolated Games
Cassette Beasts older $19.99 8,976 94% 269k $5.4M (exactly $5,382,907) Bytten Studio
Atelier Yumia: The Alchemist of Memories & the Envisioned Land $69.99 2,534 64% 76k $5.3M (exactly $5,320,640) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
Tiny Bookshop $19.99 6,967 96% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,178,110) neoludic games
Atelier Sophie 2: The Alchemist of the Mysterious Dream older $59.99 2,166 94% 65k $3.9M (exactly $3,898,150) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Coromon older $19.99 6,327 85% 190k $3.8M (exactly $3,794,302) TRAGsoft
SpongeBob SquarePants: Titans of the Tide $39.99 1,151 93% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,380,855) Purple Lamp
Yooka-Replaylee $29.99 1,045 92% 31k $940k (exactly $940,186) Playtonic Games
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Welcome to Elderfield $17.99 1,334 87% 40k $720k (exactly $719,960) Chris Cote
Fish to Dish: Idle Sushi $5.99 2,525 96% 76k $454k (exactly $453,742) Kygua Tech

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.