Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Collectathon game?

Combat + Collectathon

Of 91 developers who shipped a Combat Collectathon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 162 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $89; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×551 the market median. Revenue is up 100% on the market; 162 games are announced against 56 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 162 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 91
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $4.9k → $838 → $599 → $119 → $987 → $210 (still earning) → $987 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 91
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $537 (exactly $537)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 5% $346k (exactly $346,027)
Developers, 2 yr 91
Released games 234
Announced 162
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Collectathon; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 4,787 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $540, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. 9 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 162 games are announced against 56 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Bang-On Balls: Chronicles older $24.99 4,334 96% 130k $3.2M (exactly $3,249,200) Exit Plan Games
Supraland Six Inches Under older $19.99 3,975 96% 119k $2.4M (exactly $2,383,808) Supra Games
Hell Pie older $24.99 1,116 91% 33k $837k (exactly $836,665) Sluggerfly
Kao the Kangaroo older $29.99 871 74% 26k $784k (exactly $783,639) Tate Multimedia
Welcome to Elderfield $17.99 1,334 87% 40k $720k (exactly $719,960) Chris Cote
Duskfade $29.99 793 91% 24k $713k (exactly $713,462) Weird Beluga
Funko Fusion older $34.99 679 63% 20k $713k (exactly $712,746) 1010 Games
The Brew Barons older $21.99 828 75% 25k $546k (exactly $546,232) Lifetap Studios
Demon Turf: Queens Edition older $29.99 577 84% 17k $519k (exactly $519,127) Fabraz
沉默的蟋蟀 older $14.99 1,130 88% 34k $508k (exactly $508,161) 蓬莱飞鱼工作室
Succubus Successor: Delilah's Juicy Journey $14.99 883 90% 26k $397k (exactly $397,085) Ramen Cat Studio, 樹画祭
holoVillage: Our Cozy Days $24.99 518 83% 16k $388k (exactly $388,345) Roboqlo
Eternity Egg · EA $19.99 577 82% 17k $346k (exactly $346,027) USERLANDS
Botworld Odyssey $25.00 279 76% 8.4k $209k (exactly $209,250) Featherweight Games
Rusty Seas $19.99 89 100% 2.7k $53k (exactly $53,373) Don't Feed the Wuff
Teeto $17.99 90 94% 2.7k $49k (exactly $48,573) Eat Pant Games
Creature Keeper $14.99 101 67% 3.0k $45k (exactly $45,420) Fervir Games
Monk Took Book $8.99 123 98% 3.7k $33k (exactly $33,173) SquarePlay Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.